(CN) — Globally, last year was super hot — the warmest year ever recorded — and it may get even hotter.
This was the stark message delivered Tuesday in a report from the European Union's climate monitoring agency.
“2023 was an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes,” said Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “Temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years.”
Since last June, scientists say the planet has been baked by record heat, mostly due to the combination of human-caused global warming getting supercharged by the emergence of an El Niño weather pattern.
El Niños, part of an oscillating natural weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, are associated with warmer temperatures and unpredictable and dangerous weather around the world. Indeed, last year was scarred by a series of devastating wildfires, droughts, floods and heat waves in many parts of the planet.
El Niños vary in their duration and can last several years. Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated this El Niño cycle, which is considered strong, will last until at least April before returning to a more neutral conditions by June.
Still, scientists predict even warmer global temperatures may be recorded this year.
In measuring global temperatures, Copernicus uses huge datasets drawn from its fleet of satellites and weather stations around the planet.
Based on data going back to 1850, Copernicus said 2023 was the warmest year on record. In fact, by examining ancient climate markers, such as tree rings and air bubbles in glaciers, Copernicus said 2023 was likely the warmest year in the past 100,000 years.
Its scientists calculated that 2023 registered a global average temperature of 14.98 degrees Celsius (58.96 degrees Fahrenheit), making it quite a bit warmer than the previous record set in 2016.
That also means 2023 was 1.48 C (2.66 F) warmer than the average global temperature before 1900 and the advent of large-scale industrialization, when humans began to pump huge volumes of carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
Reaching the 1.48 C mark is critically important in the scientific and political debate over climate change. That's because countries agreed under the 2015 Paris climate treaty to try to keep the planet's long-term temperature from becoming 1.5 C (2.7 F) warmer than the pre-industrial era.
Scientists warn that exceeding that benchmark on a long-term basis would result in devastating consequences, such as irreversible sea level rise and a cascade of ecological damages.
Ominously, Copernicus said global temperatures for a 12-month period will likely exceed the 1.5 C mark for the first time early this year — perhaps by the end of January or February.
Many scientists expect this year to be even warmer than last year. On Tuesday, Britain's Met Office said it predicts this year will be warmer than 2023.
According to Copernicus, 2023 marked the first year on record during which every day exceeded one degree Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level. Nearly half of the days were more than 1.5 C warmer, and two days in November were, for the first time, more than two degrees Celsius warmer.
This means the planet is moving toward the Paris agreement's scary 1.5 C scenario, where hot temperatures are recorded globally year after year. Scientists estimate the planet is on average about 1.3 C hotter than pre-industrial times, but warn that the 1.5 threshold could be reached by as early as 2030.
“Every year for the rest of your life will be one of the hottest [on] record,” commented Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University. “This in turn means that 2023 will end up being one of the coldest years of this century. Enjoy it while it lasts.”
Under the Paris agreement, countries have committed to drastically reducing the amount of carbon emissions getting into the atmosphere. The buildup of carbon in the atmosphere is causing the greenhouse effect behind global warming.
But the Copernicus report noted efforts to reduce emissions are falling short.
In 2023, it said atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane continued to increase and hit record levels, reaching 419 parts per million and 1,902 parts per billion, respectively. Carbon dioxide concentrations were 2.4 ppm higher than in 2022 and methane concentrations increased by 11 ppb, the report said.
Other highlights in the Copernicus report included:
- Record temperatures were measured over much of the world’s oceans
- The subarctic regions saw the warmest summer on record
- December was the warmest December on record globally, coming in at 1.78 C above pre-industrial temperatures
- Temperatures in Europe were above average for 11 months during 2023 and September its warmest September on record
- The extent of Antarctic sea ice reached record lows and expanse of Arctic sea ice ranked among the four lowest ever measured at its peak in March
“The extremes we have observed over the last few months provide a dramatic testimony of how far we now are from the climate in which our civilization developed,” said Carlo Buontempo, the Copernicus director. “If we want to successfully manage our climate risk portfolio, we need to urgently de-carbonize our economy whilst using climate data and knowledge to prepare for the future.”
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.
Follow @cainburdeau
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