Brexit Fallout Hangs Over Elections in UK

(CN) --- In Scotland, the movement to gain independence and break away from Brexit-obsessed England hung over elections for the Scottish parliament. In England, the Labour Party was devastated by more electoral loss. Why? Chalk it up in large part to its opposition to Brexit. In the English Channel, a “battle” is breaking out between Britain and France over fishing. Why? Again, chalk it up to Brexit.

Call the United Kingdom Brexitland.

This week is providing strong evidence that the U.K. may be defined by its 2016 Brexit referendum for years to come with Britain, a union of four nations, experiencing a burst of fallout from its decision to leave the European Union.

On Friday, results came in from a “Super Thursday” election day when voters in Scotland, Wales and England went to the polls in regional and municipal elections postponed by the coronavirus pandemic. Brexit wasn't on the ballot but it certainly seemed to be a strong undercurrent.

In northern England, the left-wing opposition Labour Party suffered a historic defeat in a by-election for a parliamentary seat in Hartlepool, a seat it had held since 1964. It didn't just lose the seat, it was trounced. The Conservative candidate won nearly twice as many votes. Labour also suffered losses in many other local council races.

The losses were seen by pundits as a massive defeat for Labour and a sure sign of deep troubles for Britain's traditional left-wing workers' party, and it is leaving many to wonder if Brexit has made the Tories practically the only political force left. The Tories have been in power for the past 11 years and, except for the 13-year reign of Labour leaders Tony Blair and Gordon Brown between 1997 and 2010, have been residing at No. 10 Downing Street since Margaret Thatcher got there in 1979.

“Pretty grim all 'round,” said John McDonnell, a Labour parliamentarian who led his party's efforts to stop Brexit, in assessing the loss in Hartlepool. “It was pretty devastating.”

Although there were a range of factors for the defeat, he said Brexit played a pivotal role.

“Seventy percent in Hartlepool voted for Brexit,” he said, speaking on Sky News. “There's definitely hangover from that.”

After the 2016 Brexit referendum, Labour pinned its fortunes on trying to stop Brexit and fought tooth-and-nail against the hardline factions in the Tory party seeking to push Brexit over the line.

In the end, the pro-Brexit Tories got their way in 2019 when former Prime Minister Theresa May, a Brexit-lite advocate, was ousted and replaced by hardcore Brexit champion Boris Johnson. Johnson, a charismatic but controversial figure, then squashed Labour in snap elections in December 2019 and bullied the U.K. out of the EU. On Jan. 1, the U.K. officially departed.

In opposing Brexit, it now appears Labour made a huge miscalculation because many of its traditional supporters in working-class northern England, such as those in Hartlepool, favored Brexit and feel so betrayed and angry as to be willing to ditch Labour for what was once an unthinkable alternative – voting for the upper-class Tory party.

“Brexit was the catalyst and Labour’s post-referendum behavior the accelerant,” wrote Patrick O'Flynn, a political commentator for The Spectator, a conservative news magazine, about Labour's problems. “The traditional working class, to be found in largest numbers in post-industrial towns in the Midlands and the north of England, has come to understand that its values are despised by the modern, woke, middle-class Left which now holds the Labour party in its grip.”

While Brexit may be consolidating Tory power in England, opposite forces are at work in Scotland and Northern Ireland. In both places, a majority voted against Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Now, the politics of Scotland and Northern Ireland, where many powers have been devolved to national parliaments, are riven with the fallout from Brexit.

All eyes were on Scotland to see if the Scottish National Party will pick up a clear majority in the Holyrood, the name for the Scottish parliament building in Edinburgh. The SNP and its highly effective leader, Nicola Sturgeon, see independence from the U.K. as their chief mission.

By Friday evening, the SNP's goal of achieving a majority appeared out of reach, though it was set to remain the largest party. Full election results were expected to be released by Saturday.

Speaking to reporters, Sturgeon said it looked like a majority would be a “very, very long shot.” Still, she said it looked like the SNP would win the election and continue its rule in Scotland.

Media reports said early Scottish results showed significant levels of tactical voting in favor of pro-U.K. parties across Scotland. It appeared that Scots worried about the SNP's independence drive had shown up in high numbers for the election. Large sums of money were spent on an anti-independence campaign that urged voters to vote tactically against the SNP.

A new SNP government would likely push ahead with demands for an independence vote. Johnson's Tory government has said it will not grant Scotland another opportunity to hold a referendum, but that could be challenged in the courts.

In 2014, Scots voted on independence and 55% favored remaining within the U.K. But Brexit has changed the landscape. After 62% of Scotland voted to remain within the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum, support for independence has grown and polls show Scots split 50-50 on the idea today.

“The weakness of the Labour Party in England helps the SNP as much as the Tories,” commented Alexander Clarkson, a politics professor at King's College London. “The SNP argument for independence draws heavily on fears that staying in the U.K. means Scotland faces perpetual Tory rule even if Scottish voters consistently vote for non-Tory options.”

Far away from ballot boxes in Scotland, the fallout from Brexit played out in a dramatic fashion in the British island of Jersey off the coast of northern France.

A flotilla of French fishermen showed up at Jersey and staged a protest by setting off flares and trying to block the island's main harbor. They are angry over new restrictions that have left some French vessels unable to fish in the waters around Jersey.

Johnson, perhaps sensing a public relations boost on the very day that Brits went to the polls, sent British Royal Navy vessels to patrol Jersey, where French police boats were also on patrol.

The British press loved it. The right-wing Daily Mail ran headlines about “the Battle of Jersey” and by Friday said Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron were to hold “peace talks” to end the dispute.

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

Follow @cainburdeau

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