MANHATTAN (CN) — Donald Trump made history this week as his Manhattan criminal trial kicked into full gear over accusations that he falsified business records to make hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
Trump is the first U.S. president to stand criminal trial in America’s 248-year history — and he's doing so at a pivotal time in the 2024 presidential race, in which he is expected to be the Republican nominee.
Now on his third bid for the presidency, Trump is in a unique position as he faces the possibility of jail time as both a former president and a current political candidate.
“We have someone who’s, at this point, sort of set up to be the Republican nominee for president facing the possibility that he could be convicted of a felony and have to go to jail,” Boris Heersink, a political science professor at Fordham University, told Courthouse News.
“We’ve just never had to deal with that before," Heersink added. "There are no examples in American history of that being a real possibility.”
Eight years ago, prosecutors said in opening statements this week, Trump used his hush-money scheme to try and influence the 2016 election when he first ran for president.
“This case is about a criminal conspiracy, a cover-up,” Matthew Colangelo of the Manhattan district attorney’s office said in opening arguments Monday.
Trump’s historic New York trial is only one of four criminal cases the former president faces. He also faces charges for election subversion in Washington D.C., election interference in Georgia and accusations for stealing highly sensitive national security documents from the White House.
Of the four cases, the New York trial is the only one that’s expected to reach a conclusion before Election Day.
“Uncharted territory really does apply here because there are so many unknowns,” Meena Bose, a political science professor at Hofstra University, said in an interview.
Trump will spend the next roughly six weeks flanked by his legal team in a courthouse instead of on the campaign trail. He also must comply with a gag order that curbs his social media activity.
In front of New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan this week, prosecutors argued that Trump has already violated his gag order on 14 different occasions. In particular, they pointed to multiple social-media posts in which Trump attacked his former attorney and fixer Michael Cohen, calling him a “serial perjurer” and seeking to undermine his credibility as a witness.
That gag order was issued to shield expected witnesses, court employees and the families of those involved in the case from public attacks. But for Heersink, the political realities make it difficult to reconcile Trump’s position as a presidential candidate with his role as a criminal defendant.
“I think it’s a more complicated balancing act," Heersink said. "There is a political element here where his main argument is that you can’t trust Michael Cohen."
"He should be able to say that," Heersink added. "From a political perspective, it’s not unreasonable that he wants to sort of go out and make that point.”
When it comes to the impact Trump’s trial will have on voters come November, polling has elicited mixed results. A recent poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that about half of the public would not consider Trump fit for office if he were found guilty in any of his criminal cases.
In that same poll, a majority said Trump acted illegally or unethically in the state and federal cases against him. But of the people who think he did nothing wrong, a majority would still see him fit for office if he was found guilty.
“I feel like, for a lot of voters, Trump is just a very known quantity at this point," Heersink said. "He was a president for four years. He’s very persistent as an ex-president."
"Some people just kind of go away for a bit. He clearly did not,” Heersink added. “And so I think the large majority of voters have a pretty good understanding of how they feel about Trump — and how they feel about Trump also likely affects how they feel about the case.”
It’s nearly impossible to predict at this point how much of an impact this trial and Trump’s other criminal cases will have on his ability to garner voters, added Bose, the political science professor at Hofstra University.
She added that it will be interesting to watch it play out over the next couple of months.
“Without a doubt, either way, it will be consequential for the presidential election," Bose said ."We are indeed in unprecedented times."
Follow @NikaSchoonover
Subscribe to Closing Arguments
Sign up for new weekly newsletter Closing Arguments to get the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and hot cases and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world.
Additional Reads
-
-
Head of Vietnam’s parliament resigns amid corruption probe April 26, 2024