MARSEILLE, France (CN) — Center-left Socialist candidate Raphaël Glucksmann, who was under the radar in French politics before this year, looks poised to take second place in France’s June 9 European elections as voters look for a moderate alternative.
The far-left is wrapped up in scandals, voters are infuriated by President Emmanuel Macron's shift toward the right and the extreme right is rising in the polls. Glucksmann's lack of firm political convictions could work to his advantage in a tumultuous political landscape.
Jordan Bardella of France’s extreme-right National Rally party has a clear lead in the polls at around 32%. But second place looks increasingly up for grabs. While Macron’s Renaissance party candidate Valérie Hayer still has around 15%, the margins are closing in, and Glucksmann, currently polling at roughly 14.5%, looks well-positioned to take second place. A third-place finish would be a huge blow to Macron.
“Why not him?” Virginie Martin, political scientist and researcher at Kedge Business School, told Courthouse News. “After all, he's not dangerous like Mélenchon, he's not on the right like Macron, and he's not invisible like Marie Toussaint and the [green party].” Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the far-left leader of the La France Insoumise party.
People have drawn comparisons between Glucksmann and Macron. They’re both young and had a quick rise to power. Glucksmann didn’t start his career in politics; he was a journalist, activist and EU lawmaker. He famously served as an advisor to Georgia’s former President Mikheil Saakashvili. Later, Glucksmann founded the small Place Publique party in 2018 and headed the joint European elections list between his party and the Socialists one year later, when he was sent to become a member of the European Parliament.
Though Macron has denied that Glucksmann poses any kind of a threat to his party, the Elysée seems to be pushing him out of the spotlight. Glucksmann was enraged over not being included in Thursday evening's scheduled debate between Bardella and French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. The debate has sparked further controversy considering that Macron is sending Attal, rather than Hayer, his nominee for the European elections.
There's doubt over whether “Glucksmania” — the term designated to Glucksmann’s sudden spike in popularity — will last. While some say he’s the result of a fractured French political left, other argue there simply aren’t that many other options.
“Raphaël Glucksmann is a bit of a default choice, because in fact, the Socialist Party said it could not find a head of the list,” Martin said. “Secondly, the head of the European and Green list is not as powerful, not as well known and doesn’t have the same notoriety as Yannick Jadot, [their leader] in the past.”
Martin argues that Glucksmann can be politically vague, not veering too far one way or another.
“He can be very liberal on certain aspects, voting here or there for more or less liberal laws, and then he says he is compatible with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and at the same time, he’s not,” Martin said. “So, he's a bit of a character; very vague, difficult to understand, but who ultimately benefits from a relatively favorable rating today in a context which is extremely favorable to it.”
Controversy surrounding Mélenchon — who won 21.95% in the first round of France’s presidential vote in 2022, a high number by French standards — has undoubtedly played a role in Glucksmann’s rise. Mélenchon’s popularity crumbled when he was accused of being antisemitic by refusing to say that Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel was an act of terrorism. Since then, he has consistently been wrapped up in scandals.
The string of recent controversies caused a splinter in Mélenchon’s NUPES coalition. Glucksmann is taking advantage of the space.
“It represents what I would call the center left in France, which no longer exists politically since in fact, the Socialist party was completely marginalized and for a time rallied to the extreme left for electoral reasons,” Gérard Grunberg, director of research at Sciences Po’s Center of European Studies, told Courthouse News. “The whole problem is whether the union of the left could be reestablished or not; I don't believe it, but some people believe it or hope so.”
France’s far left is Eurosceptic, another counterpoint to Glucksmann, who is pro-Europe and advocates for sending increased aid to Ukraine. Like Macron, he recognizes the threat that Putin’s Russia poses to the EU. But he’s different enough from Macron to attract some of his voters, who have been disappointed by the president's shift to the right. Recent reforms on immigration and retirement that have been criticized as appeasing the right likely sent people searching for someone aligned to the center left.
“Some people from the left who had voted for Emmanuel Macron in the past are disappointed with the somewhat right-wing tendency of Emmanuel Macron and are coming back,” Martin said.
The European elections are held every five years to decide who will be one of the 720 MEPs, or members of the European Parliament, sent from countries across the EU. In France, in the months preceding the elections, parties draft lists of politicians that they’d put into parliament, in order of preference. Depending on the turnout, each party sends a proportional number of delegates from that list.
The first name on each list is the “tête de liste,” or head of the list, and the face of that party’s campaign with a pretty-much guaranteed spot in parliament.
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