DES MOINES, Iowa (CN) — Five weeks before Iowa Republicans head to precinct caucuses to declare their choice for their party's presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump continues to tower over a shrinking field of opponents while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis jockey for second place, according to a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll published Monday.
Trump led the field with 51% of the support of Iowans who are likely to attend their caucuses Jan. 15. DeSantis was second with 19% and Haley was third with 16%. Trump leads with every Iowa demographic group surveyed, with self-identified Republicans, and with independents.
Other than Trump’s 8-point bump, the results are little changed from the last Iowa poll in October, which had Trump at 43% and DeSantis and Haley tied at 16%. The poll results among Iowa voters are consistent with national polling averages tracked by the website FiveThirtyEight, which as of Monday showed Trump at 59.3%, DeSantis at 12.6%, and Haley at 11.6%
Some of Trump’s gains may be explained by the withdrawal of a half-dozen Republican candidates in recent weeks, including South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and former Vice President Mike Pence, or by recent DeSantis endorsements by Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.
The remaining Republican candidates are trailing in the single digits, with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswami at 5%, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 4%, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson at 1%.
“The field may have shrunk, but it may have made Donald Trump even stronger than he was,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll for the Register/NBC News/Mediacom, told the Register. “I would call his lead commanding at this point. There's not much benefit of fewer candidates for either Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.”
The Register reported Monday that "the share of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers who are confident that Trump can win an election against Democratic President Joe Biden, despite the 91 felony charges he faces across four criminal cases, has grown 8 percentage points since October. According to the poll, 73% say they believe Trump can win against Biden, regardless of his legal challenges. That’s up from 65% in October.”
The poll of 502 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Dec. 2-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Follow @@roxalaird16
Subscribe to Closing Arguments
Sign up for new weekly newsletter Closing Arguments to get the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and hot cases and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world.
Additional Reads
-
Homes, businesses damaged as tornadoes pummel Midwest April 26, 2024 -