DES MOINES, Iowa (CN) — Despite his legal troubles, former President Donald Trump maintains a commanding 27-point lead in Iowa over his nearest rivals for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, according to a new poll published Monday by the Des Moines Register. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley moved up to tie for second with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Forty-three percent of Iowa Republicans likely to attend their party caucuses Jan. 15, 2024, declared Trump their top pick, which is up a tick from his support among 42% of likely GOP caucusgoers in the Register’s August poll.
Haley and DeSantis were tied at 16% in Monday’s poll, with the remainder of the field of major Republican candidates trailing in single digits.
“That’s a drop of 3 percentage points for DeSantis, who was the first choice of 19% of caucusgoers in August,” the Register reported. “And it’s a 10-point jump for Haley, who was at 6%.” Haley doubled her support among independent voters, the Register reported.
Kelly Hester, a poll participant from Solon, Iowa, who identifies as an independent, told the Register Haley is her top choice in part because Trump has “ticked off too many people” and will not be able to defeat President Joe Biden.
“The Republicans have ticked me off as of lately with their stance on gay rights, transgender and especially abortion rights,” she said. “But I definitely lean Republican fiscally.”
The poll, done in association with NBC News and Mediacom, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Iowa Republicans will gather in precinct caucuses Jan. 15, 2024, to begin the delegate selection process, which is the first measure of voters’ sentiment heading into the November 2024 election. Monday’s Iowa poll results for the second spot suggest Iowa voters may have begun sorting out their preferences after seeing nearly a dozen GOP hopefuls traversing the state in recent months.
“You just have (Haley) rising. You have DeSantis kind of holding on for second place,” J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll, told the Register. “But both of them are on ground that you could only describe as shaky compared to the solid ground that Donald Trump stands on.”
Although U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina has devoted time and resources to campaigning in Iowa, the poll showed him with just 7% of potential caucusgoers' support, down 2 percentage points from the August poll. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie were tied at 4%.
Former Vice President Mike Pence announced Saturday he was dropping out of the race.
Trump holds a larger lead nationally, with the support of 56.9% of Republicans as of Oct. 28, according to an average of polls by the website FiveThirtyEight. DeSantis was in second place with 14.1%, followed by Haley at 8%, based on the national polling average.
The Register poll, conducted Oct. 22-26, is based on telephone interviews with 404 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.
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