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Monday, April 15, 2024 | Back issues
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Russia’s war against Ukraine set to get more brutal after Moscow terrorist attack

Regardless of who was behind the attack that killed at least 139 people at a Moscow concert hall, the Kremlin looks set to blame Ukraine and the West. That likely means the war in Ukraine may get even more deadly.

(CN) — Russia's war aims against Ukraine are likely to become even more brutal and aggressive after the Kremlin linked Kyiv to the concert hall attack outside Moscow that killed at least 139 people and wounded many others.

By Monday, there were clear signs that Russia was stepping up its assault on Ukraine as it accused Kyiv of being behind the massacre on Friday night at the Crocus City Hall, a large music venue on the outskirts of Moscow.

In Kyiv, explosions rocked the city Monday after Russian missiles reportedly targeted a building housing top-ranking officials with Ukraine's Security Service. Missiles also struck Odesa.

With a branch of the Islamic State group claiming responsibility for the concert hall attack, Western governments accused Moscow of seeking to use the massacre to target Ukraine. Kyiv denied any involvement and accused Russia of staging the massacre to help unify and mobilize the country in its war against Ukraine.

On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against blaming Ukraine for the attack. At the same time, France raised its security alert to the highest level over concerns of IS attacks inside France.

“This attack was claimed by Islamic State and the information available to us, to our (intelligence) services as well as to our main partners, indicates indeed that it was an entity of the Islamic State which instigated this attack,” Macron said.

“It would be both cynical and counterproductive for Russia itself and the security of its citizens to use this context to try and turn it against Ukraine,” the French president added.

On Sunday evening, four suspects accused in the attack appeared in a Moscow court and were charged with terrorism. They showed signs of being severely beaten by Russian security officials. One of the men, brought in on a wheelchair, was barely conscious during the hearing. Russian media said the suspects had been tortured.

All four men were identified as citizens of Tajikistan. Seven other unidentified people were arrested in connection with the attack, authorities said.

During a five-minute address to the nation on Saturday, Putin linked the massacre to Kyiv by claiming the attackers were fleeing to Ukraine when they were stopped and arrested in a forest near Bryansk, a city about 60 miles from the Ukraine border.

“They attempted to escape and were heading towards Ukraine, where, according to preliminary information, a window was prepared for them on the Ukrainian side to cross the state border,” Putin said.

Russia's Federal Security Service and other law enforcement agencies would “expose the accomplice base behind these terrorists,” Putin vowed.

He charged that they were provided with transport, planned escape routes and caches with weapons and ammunition.

About 6,000 people were attending a concert by Picnic, a well-known and popular Russian rock band, when the four suspects arrived at the hall at about 8 p.m. and began shooting people indiscriminately with automatic rifles and pistols. They set the concert hall on fire with firebombs, causing scores of deaths.

It was the worst terrorist attack in two decades in Russia and left the nation in a state of shock and anger.

In Russia, the attack was framed as part of Ukraine's widening campaign to hit Russia inside its borders with drone strikes on energy infrastructure and oil refineries, missile attacks on Russian border towns and cities and troop incursions into border regions.

Putin vowed a harsh response to the concert hall attack.

“It is already clear that we are confronted not simply with a carefully and cynically planned terrorist attack, but a premeditated and organized mass murder of peaceful, defenseless people,” Putin said.

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“All perpetrators, organizers and masterminds of this crime will face fair and inevitable punishment, whoever they may be and whoever directed them,” Putin said.

He characterized the attack as an attempt “to sow the poisonous seeds of discord, panic [and] disunity in our multiethnic society.”

“Russia has weathered the most arduous, sometimes unbearable trials more than once, yet it has emerged even stronger,” the Russian president said. “And so it shall be now, as well.”

Speaking on Monday night with law enforcement officials, Putin continued to point the finger at Ukraine while also acknowledging “radical Islamists” carried out the attack.

“This atrocity may be only a link in a whole series of attempts by those who have been fighting our country since 2014, using the neo-Nazi Kyiv regime as their hand,” Putin said, as reported by Russian media. He added that a lot of questions remained unanswered.

Russian state media said the suspects told investigators they were offered a financial reward for carrying out the attack after they were commissioned via the Telegram social network by unidentified individuals.

Russia’s Federal Security Service said the gunmen had contacts in Ukraine, though no details were provided.

The suspects were identified as Dalerdzhon Mirzoyev, 32; Saidakrami Rachabalizoda, 30; Shamsidin Fariduni, 25; and Mukhammadsobir Faizov, 19. They were charged with committing a terrorist attack resulting in the death of others. The offense carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.

Mirzoyev, Rachabalizoda and Fariduni showed signs of heavy bruising, including swollen faces. Rachabalizoda also had a heavily bandaged ear. Russian media said Saturday that one of the suspects had part of his ear cut off during interrogation. The fourth suspect, Faizov, sat in a wheelchair with his eyes closed throughout the proceedings.

Court officials said Mirzoyev and Rachabalizoda admitted guilt for the attack after being charged.

U.S. intelligence officials said they had confirmed the IS affiliate’s claim.

“ISIS bears sole responsibility for this attack. There was no Ukrainian involvement whatsoever,” National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said in a statement.

The U.S. shared information with Russia in early March about a planned terrorist attack in Moscow, and issued a public warning to Americans in Russia, Watson said.

IS, which fought against Russia during its intervention in the Syrian civil war, has long targeted Russia. In a statement posted by the group’s Aamaq news agency, the IS Afghanistan affiliate said that it had attacked a large gathering of “Christians” in Krasnogorsk.

Western experts said the terrorist attack undermined Putin's image as Russia's guarantor of security and would cause unease among Russians. It came only days after he won another six-year term in office.

“Regardless of who is behind the shooting, the Kremlin will likely frame the tragedy in a way to advance its broader geopolitical objectives,” said Andrius Tursa, a Russia expert at Teneo, a London-based political risk firm, in a briefing note.

He said Putin’s attempt “to make linkages between the shooting and Ukraine might be an attempt to distract public attention from internal security failures and signify the Kremlin’s efforts to rally public support for the continued war with Ukraine.”

Tursa said “media outlets and propagandists close to the Kremlin have gone into overdrive to try to persuade the Russian public that Ukraine (and Western intelligence services) were behind the attack.”

In seeking to blame Kyiv, Russian media and experts have sought to point out links between Ukraine and Islamist extremists.

Dmitry Trenin, a member of the Russian International Affairs Council and former head of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said the attack could “lead to serious changes in Moscow’s foreign policy” if the investigation finds Ukraine and the West were involved.

In a piece for RT, a Russian state news outlet, Trenin questioned the U.S. government's quick assertions that IS and not Ukraine had carried out the concert attack.

As with other Russian experts, he said the attackers did not appear to be Islamist radicals because they did not make political statements; chose to escape rather than die in a firefight; and told investigators they carried out the attack because of the financial reward.

Trenin said that if Russia concludes “the attack was conceived, planned, and organized by the Ukrainians” then Moscow would see Ukrainian top officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as not just “'legitimate' targets but priority ones.”

Until now, Trenin said, Putin had informally assured foreign leaders that Russia would not target Zelenskyy.

“If so, Moscow would be removing one of its most important self-imposed constraints — not to touch Kiev's senior leadership,” he wrote.

In line with recent comments by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Trenin said Moscow may begin to view Ukraine, under the leadership of Zelenskyy's government, as a “terrorist state” that cannot be tolerated.

Last week, Peskov made similar comments, giving the impression that Putin for the first time was unwilling to consider negotiations with Zelenskyy and that Moscow saw regime change in Kyiv as its objective. In those same comments, Peskov said Russia was effectively “at war” with the West in Ukraine.

Also last week, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to expand the army by the end of 2024, including the introduction of two combined-arms armies and 30 formations. To do this could mean mobilizing about 200,000 more soldiers.

“Russia must achieve a complete victory — otherwise it will constantly bleed at the hands of the terrorists in power next door, supported and protected by the country's adversaries in the West,” Trenin said. “If the results of the investigation confirm that Ukraine was behind the Crocus City massacre, Russia’s war aims will need to be greatly expanded, and the conflict will significantly grow in intensity.”

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

Follow @cainburdeau
Categories / International, Politics

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