(CN) — In Polish parliamentary elections that saw the highest turnout since the end of communism, three pro-European Union political parties were on track Monday to close the chapter on eight years of dominance by hard-right ultranationalists accused of turning Poland into an illiberal state.
Exit polls and preliminary results by Monday afternoon showed the ruling Law and Justice party falling short of the votes it needed for an unprecedented third term. It was on pace to obtain about 36% of the vote.
Instead, former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the leader of the center-right liberal Civic Platform, was in the best position to become the next prime minister by joining forces with two other groups, the conservative Third Way and liberal New Left.
Civic Platform looked set to get about 30% of the ballot while Third Way and New Left were expected to pick up 14.5% and 8.4% respectively, according to preliminary results. A final tally may not be released until Tuesday. The opposition parties were expected to hold about 248 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, Poland's powerful lower chamber in Parliament.
“It’s the end of the evil times,” Tusk said Sunday night as the first exit poll showed Law and Justice falling short.
“We won democracy, we won freedom, we won our free, beloved Poland,” he said, as reported by the Guardian. “This day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland … . We will create a good new democratic government with our partners.”
This election was seen as a major win for those in Europe worried about a rise in far-right forces across the bloc.
“The outcome is good news for Poland’s domestic political and economic trajectory as well as its position in the EU,” said Anna-Carina Hamker, an expert on Europe at the Eurasia Group, a political risk firm. “The incoming liberal opposition government will take steps to restore the rule of law and depoliticize state institutions while adopting a more consensus-oriented approach towards Brussels and other European capitals.”
Turnout among Poland's 30 million voters was a record high 72%, the highest since Poland's transition from communism in 1989. Long lines were reported at polling stations across the country, with especially high turnout in urban precincts and at foreign consulates, a sign that younger and pro-EU voters were particularly eager to cast ballots. In Poland, the last votes were delivered at nearly 3 a.m. in the city of Wrocław, six hours after the official close of polls.
Mobilization was seen as key in this highly polarized contest that saw the two main parties offering very different policies and views for Poland's future.
Law and Justice gets its core support from rural, older and working-class voters with more traditional views on marriage, abortion and gay rights. Civic Platform relies on urban, liberal and younger voters.
Since taking power in 2015, Law and Justice has turned Poland into a combative anti-EU power and attempted to overhaul the Polish judiciary, which it sees as filled with corrupt communist-era judges.
But critics, including EU institutions, accuse the ruling party of seeking to quash the judiciary's independence with its reforms and turn Poland into an authoritarian state.
Warsaw and Brussels have engaged in an intense legal battle over the judicial reforms and top Polish judges have rocked the EU's legal system by challenging the primacy of EU laws.
Hard-right governments in Warsaw and Budapest have faced EU sanctions and the loss of billions in EU funds for allegedly undermining the rule of law in their countries. Sunday's election was seen as a setback for hard-right Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban because he'd teamed up with Law and Justice to challenge EU laws and mandates.
A Tusk-led coalition government is expected to bring Warsaw back into the EU mainstream and realign it with Brussels and Berlin. Tusk is an ardent supporter of EU integration and he would be expected to try to undo the judicial overhaul begun under Law and Justice.
But a Tusk government would face big hurdles because Polish President Andrzej Duda is an ally of Law and Justice and he has the power to veto legislation.
Also, the Constitutional Tribunal, a Polish high court whose members were appointed by a parliament in the hands of Law and Justice, could block reforms and laws brought by Tusk.
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.
Follow @cainburdeau
Subscribe to Closing Arguments
Sign up for new weekly newsletter Closing Arguments to get the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and hot cases and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world.
