(CN) — The crisis over Belarus is quickly worsening following a series of provocative acts by President Alexander Lukashenko, a Soviet-era style leader who has become a reviled outcast in Europe since he allegedly rigged last year's presidential elections and brutally suppressed protests.
On Tuesday, the European Union and its ally the United States were thrown into a serious political dilemma after the body of a Belarusian activist was found hanging from a tree in a park in Kyiv, Ukraine, possibly the victim of Belarusian hit men.
The victim, 26-year-old Vitaly Shishov, ran the Belarusian House in Ukraine, an organization that helps Belarusians flee repression and persecution by Lukashenko's regime.
Shishov's alleged murder follows another international incident involving a Belarusian athlete at the Summer Olympic Games who received protection from the Polish embassy after she charged that Belarus was seeking to force her return to Minsk for critical statements she had made on social media.
Kristina Timanovskaya, a 24-year-old sprinter, alleges she was taken against her will to the Haneda Airport in Tokyo by two team attendants and then refused to board the plane, sparking a high-stakes diplomatic incident.
“I am worried about my safety. And I think that, at the moment, it is unsafe for me in Belarus,” she said, according to the German Die Welt newspaper.
Both Shishov's death and Timanovskaya's case present the EU and the U.S. with the difficult job of responding to Lukashenko and his provocations. In May, the regime startled the world by forcing a Ryanair passenger flight en route to Lithuania to land in Minsk, where an opposition journalist was arrested.
The EU and the U.S. already have imposed stiff sanctions on Belarus, and that has forced Lukashenko to become ever more dependent on Russia, a development that hurts the EU's cause to help foster democracy in Belarus.
In the immediate term, it is possible Belarus may be banned from the Summer Games over the Timanovskaya incident, a move that would leave its athletes competing without a national flag.
The trouble in Belarus started in August 2020 when Lukashenko was accused of widespread vote rigging to extend his rule over Belarus. He has been president since 1994 in the wake of Belarus becoming an independent nation and separate from the old Soviet Union.
In the wake of the election, huge protests broke out but they were squashed ruthlessly. For months, the crackdown has only intensified, leading to thousands of arrests, the persecution of political rivals and a widespread crackdown on activists, journalists, lawyers and dissidents.
Belarusian police, soldiers and secret agents are accused of kidnapping dissidents, using brutal force on protesters, illegally targeting activists, lawyers and journalists and torture.
Belarus is a nation of about 9 million people sandwiched between Russia and Poland. Historically it is tied to Russia, but prior to the 2020 election protests there were hopes in the EU that Lukashenko was warming his ties with the EU and the U.S.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has provided his full support to Lukashenko, who he sees as a like-minded pro-Russian nationalist politician unwilling to accept the EU as a friend. Russia and Belarus have a long-standing mutual benefit pact. Putin is pushing to get Belarus re-incorporated into the Russian Federation.
In Kyiv, police said they were investigating whether Shishov's death was a murder masked as a suicide. He went missing after going for a morning run on Monday in a wooded park near his home.
Shishov's organization finds lodging and work for Belarusian exiles and helps them get legal help. He told his friends about being followed by men on a recent run.
In a statement, the Belarusian House in Ukraine accused the Belarusian state of killing their leader.
“There is no doubt that this was a planned operation by security operatives to liquidate a Belarusian dangerous for the regime. We will continue to fight for the truth about Vitaly's death,” the group said.
The exiled leader of the anti-Lukashenko opposition, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, said Shishov's death was a troubling development that shows Lukashenko is willing to go beyond the borders of Belarus to target his opponents. Shishov fled Belarus following the crackdown on dissidents, his friends said.
“I would say it was a crime, but I can't say it without any results of (the) investigation,” she said on Tuesday.
Yury Shchuchko, a member of the Belarusian House in Ukraine, told the Associated Press that Shishov's body was found with evidence of beatings to his face.
He said Shishov thought he was being watched during his runs.
“Vitaly asked me to take care of his loved ones, he had a weird feeling,” Shchuchko told the AP.
This case and that of Timanovskaya underscore the fear many in Belarus live under.
Last week, the Olympic sprinter complained on her Instagram account that she was being forced to participate in a different discipline than one she had gone to Tokyo for. She said she was being called on to replace Belarusian athletes who had not completed a sufficient number of doping tests.
Without her consent, she said she was being compelled to compete in the 4-by-400-meter relay rather than her specialty, the 200-meter dash.
A Minsk-based correspondent for Le Monde, the French newspaper, reported that Belarusian national television labeled what she had said as “unpatriotic behavior” and the newspaper said this was the likely reason why she was being sent back to Belarus.
In Tokyo, she was given refuge and a humanitarian visa at the Polish embassy. Poland is among the EU countries most concerned about events in Belarus.
The EU is actively supporting the opposition and demanding Lukashenko conduct new elections. Poland and Lithuania are the most vocal critics of Lukashenko and together they have granted about 120,000 visas to Belarusians who’ve fled the regime. They also provide opposition members in exile with housing, work and medical care.
The European Commission, the EU's executive branch, declared its solidarity with Timanovskaya and condemned Belarus.
Nabila Massrali, a commission spokeswoman, said the move to force Timanovskaya to fly home “is another example of the brutality with which Lukashenko's regime oppresses the people of Belarus.”
The Belarusian Olympic Committee said Timanovskaya was being brought back to Belarus because of her “emotional-psychological” condition. The committee is run by Lukashenko's 45-year-old son, Viktor.
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.
Follow Cain Burdeau on Twitter
Follow @cainburdeau
Subscribe to Closing Arguments
Sign up for new weekly newsletter Closing Arguments to get the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and hot cases and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world.
