(CN) — After 674 days of fighting, the war in Ukraine can be called a stalemate, but the scales may be tipping favorably toward Russian President Vladimir Putin and his war machine bent on capturing large segments of Ukrainian territory.
The cataclysmic events in Ukraine are at what many experts on both sides of the conflict say is an apex — and tipping point — in a still-uncertain war that looks set to go on for at least another year, and possibly much longer, with neither side ready for peace talks.
“Next year is going to be a challenging year,” said Michael Kofman, a prominent Western expert on Russia's military and the war.
“To some extent, Russia has some of the material advantage on its side,” he said in a recent analysis for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
After a disappointing year when it failed to break through Russia's defenses on territory Moscow has occupied, Ukraine is now on the defensive, husbanding a dwindling flow of aid from the West and mobilizing younger men toward the front lines, Kofman said.
“If the right choices aren't made both in Ukraine but also very importantly here, Ukraine could begin losing the war and people need to be clear about that,” he said.
War-ravaged Kyiv's success rests with Congress passing a vital-but-stalled $61.4 billion aid package, Kofman said.
“Ukrainians are going to fight on, but it will be an increasingly desperate fight” without substantial flows of Western aid, he said.
Combat along 620 miles of front lines in eastern Ukraine has left upwards of 500,000 soldiers from both sides dead or injured, according to estimates. Meanwhile, more than 27,500 civilians have been killed or injured, according to the United Nations.
In geopolitical terms, the stakes in the war have only gotten higher since Moscow's huge gamble to go to war over Ukraine has not backfired. Indeed, the opposite seems to be happening: The war seems to be fortifying Russia.
“There have been a lot of victory laps that Putin has been taking,” said Michael Kimmage, a Russia expert and historian at the Catholic University of America, speaking in the same CSIS analysis. “They really have been pouring it on thick in the Russian media that the West is crumbling; Ukraine is on its last legs; and Russia is on the verge of achieving victory.”
In truth, Putin and Russia have a lot to crow about. Despite suffering humiliating defeats early in the war and getting severely punished and sanctioned by Western and global institutions, Russia has survived remarkably well.
“In hindsight, we underappreciated how successful Russia would be,” said Maria Snegovaya, a Russia expert at Georgetown University, in the CSIS analysis. “We see that Russia is adjusting very successfully to sanctions.”
For Western and Ukrainian leaders, one of the most ominous developments has been Russia's successful transformation toward a war economy. It now appears to be winning the arms race.
Russian defense spending has nearly doubled and accounts for about 6% of gross domestic product. The Kremlin reports a 26% increase in the production of combat vehicles, aircraft and ships.
Tanks, light-armored vehicles, artillery shells, long-range missiles, drones and multiple-rocket-launcher systems are rolling off Russian assembly lines at much higher rates than before the war, Snegovaya said.
Russia is “doubling down in this war,” she said.
This frantic arms production is fueled by profits Russia continues to get — in spite of losing virtually all its lucrative trade with the European Union — for its oil, natural gas and coal exports.
In a bruising disappointment for the United States and its allies, most non-Western powers — China, India, South Africa, Brazil and others — eagerly replaced Western buyers of Russian goods and refused to go along with sanctions against Moscow.
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