ATLANTA (CN) — Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a 5-point lead over President Donald Trump in the traditionally Republican-leaning state of Georgia, according to a poll released Wednesday.
With just six days to go before Election Day, a Monmouth University poll of 504 registered Georgia voters conducted between Oct. 23 and 27 shows that 50% support Biden compared to 45% who favor Trump. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%.
Over half (58%) of voters surveyed said they already cast their ballots during the Peach State’s early voting period, which began Oct. 12. Among that group, Biden holds a 55% lead compared to 43% for Trump.
However, the Republican incumbent has the lead among those who have yet to cast their ballots, polling at 48% compared to 44% for Biden.
“Trump is likely to win the Election Day vote. The question is by how much,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement Wednesday. “The Democratic voters left on the table at this point tend to be less engaged and thus harder to turn out. So, it is still possible for Trump to make up his deficit in the early vote.”
Support for Biden remains unchanged in a Monmouth model forecasting high voter turnout levels, while support for Trump increased just 1 percentage point in that scenario – 50% for Biden and 46% for Trump. A lower turnout model still predicts that Biden will come out ahead, although by a narrower margin – 50% to 48% for Trump.
Two percent of registered Georgia voters say they plan to vote for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and another 2% are undecided.
The poll represents a slight upward tick for Biden among Georgia voters since a Monmouth poll published in September showed Trump polling at 47% compared to Biden’s 46%.
But the former vice president still faces an uphill battle for Georgia’s 16 electoral votes. No Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since 1992 and Trump carried Georgia by 5 percentage points in 2016.
Looking to bolster his chances in the Peach State, Biden held a rally Tuesday in Warm Springs, a rural town 72 miles outside Atlanta. He also spoke in the capital city later in the day.
Wednesday’s poll also shows Democrats taking the lead in two key U.S. Senate races that could help tip the balance in the chamber, throwing control to the Democrats.
Democrat Jon Ossoff leads incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in Georgia’s regularly scheduled Senate election by 3 percentage points (49% to 46%) and Democrat Raphael Warnock has the support of a plurality of registered voters (41%) in the special election for retired Republican Senator Johnny Isakson’s seat, which is currently held by GOP Senator Kelly Loeffler, who is polling at 21%.
According to Monmouth’s high likely turnout modeling, Warnock holds onto his lead with 41% support to Loeffler’s 22% and Republican challenger Doug Collins’ 19%. In a low turnout scenario, Warnock maintains his lead with 42% support to Loeffler’s 22% and Collins’ 20%.
Warnock has benefitted from the competition between Loeffler and Collins, who have repeatedly focused their attention on challenging each other’s loyalty to Trump.
“The fight for a spot in the runoff has gotten nastier between the two GOP candidates. And the main beneficiary appears to be the Democrat,” Murray said.
The two Senate races will advance to runoffs in January 2021 if no candidate secures a majority of the vote on Election Day.Follow @KaylaGoggin_CNS
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