SURABAYA, Indonesia (CN) — With more than 4 billion people — or roughly half of the world’s population — set to choose their major political representatives, 2024 could prove to be a pivotal year in modern human history.
Never before have this many people been able to vote in a single year. Depending on who takes leadership around the globe, these elections could lay the foundations for geopolitical change.
And while the outcome of the U.S. presidential contest continues to attract attention worldwide, other regions and nations are creeping onto the international stage with demands and agendas that could challenge or even change the current world order.
A little more than a month into the new year, the world already has answers to several crucial electoral questions.
In Taiwan, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party was successful for a third consecutive presidential election, with voters voicing their desire for continued independence amid growing tensions with China, which claims the island as part of the mainland.
Taiwan’s presidential election proves that size does not always matter. The same cannot be said about the rest of Asia.
Seven of the world’s most populous countries are voting in 2024, with the Asian continent dominating that list. Some of these nations have gone through exponential economic growth over the last decades, and as a reward have the potential to claim large chunks of the world economy moving forward.
One significant player is India, which recently took neighboring rival China's spot as the world's most populous country. Experts project the Asian giant to become the world’s third-largest economy under President Narendra Damodardas Modi, if he wins a third term this year.
Economic growth is not necessarily a good thing for the Indian masses, Tobias Axelsson, senior lecturer at Swedish Lund University’s Department of Economic Development of the Global South, told Courthouse News.
“The big challenge for India today is not the continuation of growth, but rather how it can translate that economic growth into positive effects on its social indicators,” he said. “How does that translate into everyone having clean water, or a sort of inclusive development process action? I think India in that sense is a bit slow.”
International observers and experts have long criticized Modi’s Hindu-nationalist approach., which shows signs of transforming the world’s biggest democracy into a more authoritarian state. Public persecution of Muslims has brought human rights in India to the forefront, with Modi’s government denying that there’s minority abuse.
On an international scale, India serves as an alternative partner to China — which many countries, including the U.S., will take advantage of. India’s growth has flown under the radar for a long time.
“India is buying oil from Russia and is getting away with it, as America is not putting sanctions on it,” Axelsson said. “Europe and America are now wary of China as a partner. These economies are looking for alternatives, and this is where India has an opportunity.”
Another Asian giant casting ballots is Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous country. The current President Joko Widodo will end his second and final term this year with elections starting on Thursday next week.
Indonesia’s economy is in good shape, and its enormous middle class serves as a big market for international corporations. Even though Chinese capital has helped shape Indonesia’s modern economy, like India, the archipelago's strength on the world stage may lie simply in not being the U.S. rival, Axelsson said.
“Indonesia wants to be something else than a resource exporter. They want to be the manufacturer,” he said. “Perhaps the opportunity here is whatever China can do, they can as well. And there’s no Chinese Communist Party attached.”
This sense of security could provide Indonesia with a different appeal on the international market — if the new president can seize that opportunity.
Africa is another continent clawing onto the world stage. Demands for reparations from past European colonizers, international security politics on world trade, and the emergence of new market opportunities have all contributed to the growing interest from Global North nations.
One-fourth of the world's population will be African by 2050. And that plays a significant role for world politics in the future, according to Gerd Kieffer-Døssing, a researcher with expertise in Pan-Africanism at the Danish Institute of International Studies.
The diversity of the African continent is important, Kieffer-Døssing said. There are 54 very different nations with a variety of political systems. Western countries have long expected Africa to follow suit with their decisions, but stronger voices from Europe's neighbor are challenging this notion.
“If Africa can stand together as a united block, the continent will obtain great influence based on the power it collects,” she said.
International media are keeping a keen eye on the presidential election in South Africa, where the African National Congress is falling in popularity, jeopardizing their streak of uninterrupted power since 1994. And in Senegal, a democratic bastion among West African nations, current President Macky Sall called off elections without providing a new date, sparking unrest.
Big changes are happening on a dynamic continent with growing importance and a strong will to challenge the status quo. Multiple African countries have an agenda to cut strangling economic ties with former colonizers and form a self-sufficient voice.
“Africa has proven that it is not afraid to mark its stance in geopolitical issues,” Kieffer-Døssing said, referring to South Africa’s genocide case against Israel as an example of how some African countries act in a “multipolar world.”
“The continent can insist on acting in a way that is good for Africa. That does not necessarily fall in the best interest for the West, Russia or China,” she said. “That’s the exciting part for the coming years. Can these countries find common ground?”
Follow @LasseSrensen13
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