DENVER (CN) — Nearly half of voters in Colorado's 4th Congressional District are undecided on who they’ll vote for in the Republican Party’s June primary, but a third are decidedly behind firebrand Lauren Boebert, who currently represents the state’s 3rd district, according to a text poll released on Sunday.
Kaplan Strategies, based in Kissimmee, Florida, polled 558 registered voters living in Colorado’s 4th District on Feb. 24, of whom 57% are registered Republicans and 43% intend to vote as unaffiliated.
Thirty-two percent of people polled said they plan to vote for Lauren Boebert, while 49% indicated they are undecided and 19% chose from the nine other candidates running.
“She is the favorite, but vulnerable,” political strategist Doug Kaplan told Courthouse News over the phone.
While Boebert proved to be the only candidate ranking with double-digit support, 67% of voters polled said they would not consider voting for her.
“Whatever the margins are, it's irrelevant, because it's early and her unfavorables are very high,” Kaplan explained.
“It's really a simple deal: if there’s a lot of people in the race, and the anti-Boebert vote splits between them, then she’ll win by a lot. If one person could coalesce and raise a lot of money, and the anti-Boebert vote goes to that person, then she could lose.”
Roughly 30% of voters polled said they think Boebert has good character and judgment, but 45% answered on the contrary. Additionally 46% of voters say they would not consider supporting someone who just moved to the district while only 22% said they would.
Boebert recently relocated from Colorado's 3rd Congressional District on the western side of the state to the 4th Congressional District on the east.
After living in rural Rifle, Colorado, for more than a decade, Boebert handedly won Colorado’s 3rd District over Scott Tipton in the 2020 election. Boebert narrowly won reelection against Aspen-based Democrat Adam Frisch by less than 600 votes in the 2022 midterms.
The 4th Congressional District, long held by Republican Ken Buck, spans the eastern side of the state, from Julesburg in the northeast corner down through Fort Morgan, Limon, Lamar and Springfield.
With support from 7% of voters polled, Colorado State Representative Mike Lynch, a Republican representing northern Weld and Larimer counties, ranked highest among the candidates who aren’t named Boebert. State GOP minority whip Richard Holtorf, who represents several northeastern counties, tracked support from 3% of voters, as did conservative radio host Deborah Flora.
The poll additionally found two-thirds of 4th District voters intend to support Donald Trump in next week’s primary, and a little more than a quarter plan to back Nikki Haley.
Nearly half of voters said immigration is a top issue for them, and about a third are most concerned about the economy. Eight-out-of-ten people polled said they want to see increased border enforcement and illegal immigrants deported.
Three-quarters of people polled were located in Douglas, Larimer and Weld Counties, though the poll also reached people in Elbert, Arapahoe, El Paso, Adams, Morgan, Washington, Yuma, Kit Carson, Cheyenne, Bent, Kiowa, and Prowers counties. Pollsters estimate a 4% margin of error.
To date, none of the candidates have petitioned onto the ballot, though they have until March 19 to do so.
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