Study: Watch out progressive Europe, far right coming this June in EU elections

(CN) — The European Union is on track for a shocking shift to the right this June, with polls showing far-right parties on track to emerge across the bloc as the winners of European Parliament elections, a new study projected.

Though far-right parties will not obtain the most seats, they are likely to win the elections in nine of the EU's 27 nations, make significant gains across the bloc and obtain enough clout to steer EU policy making in key areas, according to an analysis of polling data by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a pan-European think tank.

“The main winners in the elections will be the populist right,” the study said. “The results of our analysis should serve as a wake-up call for European policymakers about what is at stake.”

Anti-EU radical parties are likely to top the polls in Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia, the study said. In nine other countries, it said they are expected to come in second or third, namely in Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden.

This means that far-right parties, such as those led by France's Marine Le Pen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, will probably have much more weight in the halls of power in Brussels. They will likely push to stall efforts to tackle climate change, further close off the bloc's borders to migrants, oppose EU-wide rules and take a softer approach to authoritarian rulers and policies, the study warned.

The analysis, released on Wednesday, provides a good snapshot of the fractious state of politics in the EU ahead of the June 6-9 elections, which will see millions of Europeans casting ballots for candidates to represent them at the 720-seat European Parliament.

The Parliament, which holds sessions in Brussels and Strasbourg, France, is the only elected body among the EU institutions, but it also has less power than the executive branch and national leaders.

In these elections, as happened in the previous ones in 2019 and 2014, the two biggest parliamentary groups — made up of conservatives and social democrats — are expected to lose seats.

“This reflects the long-term decline in support for mainstream parties and the growing support for extremist and smaller parties across Europe,” the study said.

However, these blocs — dominant since Europeans first elected a pan-European Parliament in 1979 — are expected to retain their long-standing grip on power and continue to have the most say in who will be the next EU leaders — most importantly who will oversee the European Commission, the executive branch, and who will become the president of the Parliament.

These groups — the European People's Party on the right and Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats on the left — are considered pro-EU and moderate, but they have been shedding support over the past decade as Europe has been hit by a series of crises, including the Greek debt crisis, the 2015 wave of Syrian civil war refugees, the 2016 Brexit referendum, the coronavirus pandemic and the Ukraine war.

Meanwhile, parties on the far right advocating anti-Muslim, anti-Brussels, anti-progressive and anti-establishment views have been gaining amid so many problems.

The council's study projected the European People's Party will pick up 173 seats — a loss of five seats — and the Social Democrats 131 — a loss of 10 seats, making them the biggest and second-biggest groups respectively.

But two groups made up of radical-right parties, Identity and Democracy and the European Conservatives and Reformists, are on track to secure 98 seats and 85 seats respectively. Combined, this would give this side of the chamber 183 seats, the most in the Parliament.

Identity and Democracy is projected to be the biggest winner with 40 new seats, while the European Conservatives and Reformists are on pace to gain 18 new seats.

Identity and Democracy, then, could emerge as the Parliament's third-largest group. Among its members are Germany's surging far-right Alternative for Germany, a party facing mass protests and calls to be banned due to its neo-Nazi links, and Le Pen's National Rally.

Meanwhile, the biggest loser in the June elections may be the centrist liberals, a group known as Renew Europe and aligned with French President Emmanuel Macron. The study predicted they will lose 15 seats, dropping from 101 to 86.

An alliance of left-leaning Green parties is expected to drop from 71 seats to 61 while a group of far-left parties, the Left, is projected to gain six seats, jumping from 38 to 44.

After the elections, right-wing coalitions where the center-right European People's Party and far-right groups merge may become an option for the first time in EU politics, though the analysis said mainstream coalitions uniting conservatives, social democrats and liberals will maintain an edge. What seems certain, though, is that left-wing coalitions will not have the votes to form winning legislative alliances, it added.

The study said the challenge pro-EU progressive policymakers face is fighting back against the far right's “fear-driven narratives” and convincing skeptical voters about the need to pursue climate change policies, deepen integration between the EU's economies and militaries, and make the EU more independent in the face of global rivalries.

In particular, the study said policymakers need to ensure the costs of “decarbonizing” Europe in its bid to move away from fossil fuels must be “evenly shared between all parts of society” because poorer citizens “are currently fearful and turning towards the far right.”

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

Follow @cainburdeau

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