(CN) — With the onset of warmer weather in Eastern Europe, Russia is intensifying its assault on Ukraine with nightly missile and drone strikes on infrastructure and military targets, likely in advance of a major ground offensive this summer, military experts say.
On Friday, Russian troops reportedly were on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, a small but strategic city under Ukrainian control on the front lines in the Donetsk region. The city, already devastated by shelling and fighting, is mostly devoid of its prewar population of 12,500 people.
With Russian soldiers slowly advancing on Chasiv Yar from the east and the south, the heavily fortified city looks set to become the next big battle over eastern Ukraine's Donbas region in a war that has been raging for 772 days. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made capturing Donbas, a resource-rich area with large Russian-speaking populations, central to his war aims.
Ukrainian and Western military experts believe Moscow is preparing to launch a major ground offensive sometime in late May or June with the goal of breaking through Ukrainian defensive lines, grinding down Kyiv's forces and seizing more territory.
On Wednesday, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington military think tank monitoring the conflict, observed that Russia has begun sending more tanks and infantry fighting vehicles into its assaults along the front lines.
Bloody fighting, shelling and aerial attacks continue to rage on battlefields that extend more than 400 miles from the Black Sea region of Kherson to towns and villages northwest of Luhansk, a major eastern Ukrainian city under the control of Russia-backed forces since war first broke out in 2014.
Both sides claim to be inflicting massive losses on their adversary, though the number of soldiers killed and wounded in the war remains far from clear.
Citing U.S. officials, the New York Times reported in March that the number of Russian troops killed or wounded since the war started is estimated at around 350,000.
However, an analysis of excess deaths in Russia by Mediazona and Meduza, Russian news outlets critical of the government, estimated that up to 83,000 Russian soldiers had been killed by this February.
Ukraine's casualty toll is unclear. In February, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed Ukraine had lost 440,000 soldiers. Last August, U.S. officials estimated about 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and up to 120,000 wounded, according to news reports.
In February, the United Nations said it had recorded 30,457 civilian casualties since Russia invaded in February 2022. It said 10,582 civilians had been killed and 19,875 wounded.
Meanwhile, both sides are striking military and non-military targets far beyond the front lines. On Friday, Ukraine said it launched a major drone attack on military air bases inside Russia, including one near Morozovsk, a city in Russia's Rostov region about 180 miles east of the fighting.
In recent months, Ukraine has stepped up its drone attacks on Russia and even hit a building and oil refinery on Tuesday in Russia's Tatarstan region, about 800 miles away from the Russia-Ukraine border. Kyiv said the building it struck was where Russia assembled attack drones. Authorities said 12 people were injured in that assault, the deepest yet by Ukraine into Russian territory.
Russia, though, is doing much more damage to Ukraine with its repeated drone and missile attacks.
In the past two weeks, Russia has targeted Ukraine's power grid and caused massive damage to power plants, including a hydroelectric dam on the Dnipro River. A March 22 attack was Russia's worst assault yet on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, plunging large parts of the country into darkness. About 1.9 million people, many of them in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, were left without power. Another Russian fusillade on March 29 also struck Ukraine's electrical grid.
DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, lost 80% of its power generation capacity in the two attacks, the company said, as reported by the Associated Press. Plants were destroyed across the country. Russia targeted transmission networks as well.
The assault on Ukraine's energy infrastructure is seen as more evidence that Russia is planning to launch a major offensive.
By attacking the power grid, Russia is hoping to hinder Ukraine's ability to move soldiers and equipment by rail and seeking to cripple the country's economy.
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.
Follow @cainburdeau
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