(CN) — When Boyz II Men owned the radio waves and it was perfectly fine to pair velvet with denim, American political parties were less divided and less diverse. In the 30 years since, the Republican and Democratic parties have undergone steady changes, shaping them into very different groups today.
Analyzing surveys from thousands of registered voters between 1994 and 2023, the Pew Research Center traced decades of trends in political party affiliation.
Pew’s report, published Tuesday, tells a story of Democrats and Republicans becoming more diverse in terms of race and age — and more divided from each other along lines of religion and education.
“The contours of the 2024 political landscape are the result of long-standing patterns of partisanship, combined with the profound demographic changes that have reshaped the United States over the past three decades,” researchers observed in the report.
The changes have solidified differences among party members not just in their beliefs, but also in the very makeup of the groups.
Reflecting the racial makeup of the nation, both political parties have become more diverse over time. While the majority of Republicans remain white, the figure now, 77%, is down from 93% of members 30 years ago.
Today, a little more than half of Democrats identify as white: 56%, compared to 77% in 1996.
The two major parties have nearly equal proportions of Black voters today — 17 to 18% — even as 83% of Black people identify as Democrats.
The share of Hispanic Democrats tracks 10 points higher today than the number of Hispanic Republicans. Two-thirds of Asian people identify as Democrats, while one-third are Republicans.
A generation has also broadened the gulf in educational attainment between Republicans and Democrats — and not in the ways researchers might have expected. The number of Democrats with college degrees increased along with the number of Republicans without higher education.
This change is relatively new.
"In fact, until about two decades ago the Republican Party fared better among college graduates and worse among those without a college degree,” Pew researchers observed. “In the last years of George W. Bush’s presidency and the first year of Barack Obama’s, Democrats had a double-digit advantage in affiliation over Republicans among voters without a college degree."
Along with education, the economic makeup of parties has changed, with Republicans attracting more middle-class voters and Democrats drawing in both lower- and upper-income voters.
Democrats still attract more union members and renters than Republicans, while the Republican Party boasts more veterans and homeowners than their rivals.
While 82% of white veterans say they align with the Republican Party, 82% of Black veterans align with Democrats — a similar share to the number of Black non-veterans who vote blue.
Slightly more women, 51%, identify as Democrats over Republicans, 44%. Men, particularly unmarried ones, are more likely to pick the Republican Party over the Democrats.
An age gap has also widened over the last 30 years: For every 18- to 24-year-old who goes Republican, two young adults align with the Democratic Party.
Democrats absorbed a large number of the people who are increasingly unaffiliated with a religion, while a growing number of white Catholics and white evangelical Protestants have turned to the Republican Party.
Pew found the Republican Party is driven by a handful of key voting blocs: White voters without a college degree make up 51% of the party, down 17 points since 1996. The second largest group is made up of college-educated white people, 28%, followed by Hispanic voters without higher education, 7%.
The Democratic Party, on the other hand, is not dominated by any one bloc of voters. Roughly 30% of Democrats are college-educated white people. A slightly lower number, 26%, are white without high education. In 1996, uneducated white people made up 59% of the party.
While different demographics are growing within parties, Americans remain near evenly divided between the two, with 49% of people choosing blue and 48% following red.
In terms of registration, a third of voters each identify as Republican, Democrat and unaffiliated. Even though 35% of voters say they are not affiliated with a political party, many of their views still tend to align with those of 65% of people who do declare themselves card-carrying members.
Pew calls these voters partisan “leaners,” and found roughly equal shares of unaffiliated voters lean toward the Republican Party as those who lean toward the Democratic Party.
Although each election seems like the end of the road, it remains to be seen which voters can't let go and who they will ultimately support.
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