MANHATTAN (CN) — New York Democrats are used to winning in the deep blue state. But the party, especially in the Big Apple, will have to find its footing in the upcoming primary election, with the reshuffling of congressional districts turning decadeslong political partners into rivals and creating a wide field of newcomers.
If you were to bet on a race this year, though, things are looking remarkably good for Governor Kathy Hochul. The incumbent governor has a 57% majority, trailed distantly by challengers Tom Suozzi at 17% and Jumaane Williams at 6% of “very likely” voters, according to an Emerson College poll.
Hochul may have enjoyed an extra boost of support after passing gun safety legislation in early June, following the racist attack at a Tops supermarket in Buffalo that left 10 people dead at the hands of a white gunman. Hochul''s 10-bill package bans the sale of semiautomatic weapons to people under age 21 and prohibits selling most body armor to civilians.
That’s a real sign of strength, said John Kane, a clinical assistant professor at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs.
“To pass anything right now is a huge accomplishment compared to what's going on at the national level,” Kane said.
The measure hasn’t spared Hochul from criticism by her competitors. She was flanked in a recent debate by the progressive Williams, the public advocate for New York City, and centrist Suozzi, a congressman out of Long Island's Nassau County.
Suozzi called out Hochul’s endorsement by the National Rifle Association during her 2012 campaign for state Legislature. Williams criticized the governor’s gun laws as too weak and too slow, and knocked her press events as reminiscent of ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo’s pandemic announcements amid rising death tolls.
"In between those press conferences, death is happening,” Williams said. “I’m tired of going from press conference to funeral.”
Williams said Hochul should have put money used for the $18 million Buffalo Bills stadium update toward gun violence prevention. Both challengers cried corruption on the job since Hochul’s husband, former U.S. Attorney William J. Hochul Jr., is now senior vice president and general counsel at the stadium’s hospitality partner, Delaware North.
The company “sells $11 beers to people,” plus NFL tickets are often unaffordable, yet taxpayers are putting up money for the face-lift, Suozzi said.
Questions also arose about Hochul’s former lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin, who resigned after he was arraigned on federal bribery charges connected to his last election campaign. Hochul called it a disappointment and hopes to regain voters’ trust following that “setback," as she termed it.
Still, Hochul can probably dodge those critiques, Kane said. The post-Trump debate era has changed the game.
“Some glaring issue in your past, if it’s not a winning issue, or you don’t want to be on defense, you can kind of push right through it, and there may not be much consequence,” Kane explained.
Democrats lead Republicans by a “baseline” of 15 to 20 points, Kane said. “At the national level, most people remember Obama handily beating McCain — that was 7 points,” he added.
Still, the Republican race could offer a window into “just how much a plus or a minus” it is to have ties to Trump, said Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University.
Duking it out for the Republican ticket are U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, businessman Harry Wilson and Andrew Giuliani. The son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is a former White House aide and a close ally of former President Donald Trump.
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