(CN) — To uncork a bottle of wine is to pour out a glass of history. Wine not only embodies where its grapes were grown but when and how. In a review paper published in Nature on Tuesday, a team of European researchers untangle a variety of challenges and opportunities for viticulturists around the world, painting a potential portrait of the multibillion-dollar industry’s future under climate change.
Grapes are among the most valuable agricultural crops in the world after potatoes and tomatoes, generating an estimated “farm-gate” value of $68 billion annually. Nearly half of grapes grown become fermented into wine, while a large portion are eaten as fresh fruit, and a small share consumed — or avoided — as raisins.
A rare vintage of wine can fetch more than $1,000 per bottle, while common varieties may be sold in bargain basement three-buck-chucks.
Importantly, wine is said to embody the terroir, or characteristics, of its growing environment — making it nearly impossible to produce the same cabernet sauvignon in Napa Valley as in the Bordeaux region of France.
In driving higher temperatures and greater droughts, climate change promises to bring unprecedented social and economic upheaval to the world’s winemakers and aficionados.
Modern history has seen wine grapes thrive in the warm-but-not-hot mid-latitude regions of California, France, Spain, Australia, South Africa, and Argentina. Researchers however estimate heat waves driven by climate change threaten conditions for 70% of the world’s winegrowers, including “90% of traditional wine regions in coastal and lowland regions of Spain, Italy, Greece and Southern California.”
Drought and hail, early frosts and blistering summers, are all likely to disrupt vineyards’ delicate lifecycle.
"Wine quality is very sensitive to temperature during grape ripening,” researchers write in their paper. “When temperatures are too low, wines tend to exhibit a green and acidic profile. Conversely, when temperatures are too high, wines possess high alcohol and low acidity levels, featuring cooked fruit aromas rather than fresh fruit aromas.”
Besides heat and drought, winemakers must contend with more extreme weather events, unpredictable pests and virulent diseases. And that's saying nothing about the fickle tastes of consumers, who can send entire varietals sideways.
While scientists see no shortage of challenges, they also highlight several proactive management solutions, particularly in choosing drought-resistant, heat-tolerant grape varieties that rise to meet new regional demands.
“What I like to keep in mind is how resilient grape is as a crop,” the paper’s co-author, Gregory Gambetta, told Courthouse News via email. Gambetta is a professor of viticulture at Bordeaux Sciences Agro, a college in Gandingan, France.
“We always have to remember that today wine is produced in the Negev desert in Israel under 80 millimeters (3.1 inches) rainfall a year (with irrigation of course) and in tropical conditions in Thailand or Tahiti. So there is a lot of flexibility with grape to adapt to these challenges," Gambetta added.
Grapes can also be pruned to reduced transpiration, and soil can be prepared to foster deeper, more durable roots.
While Australian wine production may shrink by as much as 65% in the coming decades, growers in Tasmania and southern New Zealand are expected to see increased opportunities to grow premium grapes.
Warmer temperatures also make other places better suited for grapes in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, as well as northern France and even the United Kingdom.
In fact, wine has thrived in Great Britain before, particularly during the Roman Period. Economic and environmental factors likely led to its demise during the Little Ice Age as foreign imports became more popular.
In light of inevitable disruptions, researchers recommend future work to evaluate the economic viability of adapting, as well as the environmental costs of expanding vineyards into protected areas of wilderness.
Scientists caution that it remains to be seen which vineyards thrive, which dry up, and why.
"The exact extent of these changes remains unknown and will depend on the magnitude of climate change along with the ability to adapt to these challenges,” the researchers conclude.
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