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Sunday, May 19, 2024 | Back issues
Courthouse News Service Courthouse News Service

Former and current presidents maintain their leads in Super Tuesday primaries

Voters across the U.S. solidified the prospects of a November rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

(CN) — It's almost easy to win a party's presidential nomination in America if you already have "president" on your resume. It’s much less clear what happens when a former president runs against a current president in the general election.

Following more than a dozen Super Tuesday primary elections across the U.S., this is exactly what Americans can expect come November. Although Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump were both opposed on the ballot, neither candidate ever really found himself in hot water during the primaries.

As a sitting president, Biden has unsurprisingly won 99% of the Democratic delegates so far. As a former president, Trump likewise dominates the Republican Party primary, and is likely bolstered by the fact that many GOP voters believe he won against Biden in 2020 and therefore see him as an incumbent.

GOP challenger Nikki Haley suspended her campaign Wednesday with a Vermont win bringing her up to a total of 89 delegates to Trump’s 955.

The Republican Party nomination officially goes to the first candidate to reach 1,215 delegates.

While Trump claimed to have documented "the most successful Super Tuesday in history," his support fell below two-thirds of the vote in liberal Virginia, Massachusetts and Colorado, as well as in Utah, a strong Republican stronghold that is also home to the Mormon church.

“Overall, you're dealing with an incredibly conservative Republican base where the litmus test for how strong of a Republican you are is how pro-Trump you are, and those are the people who turn up in primaries,” said Jared McDonald, assistant professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia.

Biden stands with 1,497 of the 1,969 delegates needed to formalize his nomination. Voters in two states have awarded seven delegates to an "uncommitted" option, while a Baltimore-based businessman made a surprising grab for three delegates in the Pacific.

While the sitting president has handily won every state, he faced his greatest opposition in Minnesota and Oklahoma, where he took home just 70% of Tuesday’s vote. Nearly 20% of voters in the North Star State selected "uncommitted delegate," giving the none-of-the-above option five delegates.

Activists in Michigan last month encouraged voters to choose the “noncommitted delegate” in protest against the U.S. supporting Israel’s siege on Gaza.

“In those states where you saw 10, 15% say they were uncommitted, that really seemed to be voicing a vote of no confidence, largely due to his handling of the Israel-Gaza crisis,” said McDonald. “Does that necessarily mean those people will stay home in the presidential general election? That remains to be seen.”

While campaigns and pundits alike are hunting for weaknesses in the opponent’s armor, many analysts say it’s hard to draw general election conclusions from this primary, especially considering low voter turnout and uncompetitive elections.

Still, a significant base of Democrats did turn out to declare loyalty to Biden.

“I voted for Biden because I think he's doing a great job as president. Is he old? Yes. Does he have his flaws? Yes, but so does every candidate,” said Jason Shubert, a Denver Democrat who walked two blocks to drop off his ballot on Tuesday.

“He's a steady hand at the wheel,” Shubert said. “Under Trump, we just had a lot of erratic behavior, so it's nice having somebody that follows the norms.”

Both the Biden and Trump campaigns are reaching out to displaced Haley voters.

"Today, millions of voters across the country made their voices heard — showing that they are ready to fight back against Donald Trump’s extreme plan to take us backwards,” said Biden on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. “Every generation of Americans will face a moment when it has to defend democracy. This is our fight."

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Last month, Trump told Haley supporters they would be banned from MAGA for life, inspiring a run of “Barred Permanently” T-shirts. On Wednesday however, Trump posted a message on the Truth Social media platform asking Haley supporters “to join the greatest movement in the history of our nation.”

Independent pulse

Both Maine and Colorado invited unaffiliated voters to cast a ballot in one of the two party’s primaries — though relatively small numbers did so. A little more than 1% of Maine’s 948,000 total registered voters turned out in the primaries — including 60,000 who turned in Democratic ballots and roughly 100,000 who filled out Republican ballots.

Just over a third of Colorado's 3.7 million registered voters participated in Tuesday's primary. Ultimately, both parties' results were driven by registered party members: Unaffiliated ballots made up just a quarter of the Democratic Party’s total and a third of the Republican’s.

The Colorado Republican Party sued the Centennial State last year in an attempt to close its primary, but lost a bid for preliminary injunction in February. Colorado Republicans worry unaffiliated voters will force the party to run more moderate candidates that don’t speak to the party’s base; political scientists often point out that unaffiliated voters nearly always follow party lines.

“We cannot have Trump, so I voted for Nikki,” said Henry, an unaffiliated Denverite who voted in the primary. “If you look at history, Hitler came back, and we cannot have authoritarian people using the words he uses. I think we lose our country if he comes back.”

The secretary of state’s office does not break down how the unaffiliated voted. Courthouse News spoke with unaffiliated voters who both backed Trump and opposed him.

“Trump is the only guy that seems to know how to get the job done,” said Emily, an unaffiliated voter from Lakewood, west of Denver. “I was never big into politics, but Covid kind of opened my eyes to a lot of evil.”

While polls paint Trump and Biden as running neck and neck, the game changes if voters get to choose from a five-way race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. The Feb. 21 poll suggested a ballot with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West could pull up to 14% of voters away from Biden, helping Trump slide over the finish line.

“RFK is a wild card,” said Florida-based strategist Doug Kaplan. “You have a percentage of extreme left-wing voters who I easily could see voting for RFK, but Trump’s base is held together.”

Regardless, Kaplan said the general election is set.

“It's got to be a referendum,” Kaplan said. “If the referendum is on Donald Trump, then Biden's got a good shot. If they're able to make the referendum on Biden, he’ll lose.”

Americans Surprised with American Samoa

Voters in American Samoa’s Democratic Party have once again pulled a surprising voice into the headlines. In 2020, it was billionaire Mike Bloomberg. In 2024, a majority of voters in the U.S. territory’s Super Tuesday Democratic caucus selected Baltimore businessman Jason Palmer.

Palmer was the only candidate to actively campaign in the Pacific island, earning him 54% of the vote over Joe Biden, and three of the territory’s delegates.  

With a presence on only 16 ballots in the nation, Palmer is using his platform as a long-shot candidate to call attention to issues overlooked in mainstream partisan debates, like modernizing the government, supporting middle class trade jobs and giving capitalism a conscience.

“If you're one of the two-thirds of Americans that don't want a Trump versus Biden rematch, you know what ‘uncommitted’ means,” Palmer said. “People chose the ‘uncommitted delegate’ because they don't know that candidates like me exist.”

American Samoa’s Republican Party caucuses Friday. Party chair Will Sword said he anticipates a lot of support for Trump due to the island’s high population of military retirees and religious devotees.

Although the U.S. territory cannot vote in the general election, Sword said Trump brings the “military and God” against Biden. “You have to follow your values, otherwise what are you living for?”

Although the general election ballot is essentially set, more than two dozen states and territories will continue to hold primary elections through the summer.

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