COPENHAGEN, Denmark (CN) — Denmark’s current green transitional course will eventually result in a 68% CO2 emission reduction from 1990 levels by 2030, just 2% less than the set target according to a fresh report published by the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities on Tuesday.
The Climate Status and Projection 2024 report states that the reduction deficiency — the amount of emissions that need to be eliminated by 2030 to realize the 70% target, has fallen from 5.4 million metric tons (5.95 million tons) of CO2 in 2023 to just 1.5 million metric tons (1.65 million tons) this year.
“With the new climate projection, we expect to meet the 2025 target. At the same time, we are well on our way towards the 2030 target. The CO2 reductions are the result of ambitious agreements and a broad political co-responsibility for climate action together with ongoing better knowledge of the emissions,” said Lars Aagaard, minister of climate, energy and utilities.
And updated knowledge is exactly why Denmark is able to change its reduction deficiency drastically. Calculations based on a new model show that trees in Danish woods absorb more CO2 emissions from the atmosphere than previously thought. Additionally, emissions from low-lying soils have proven less than thought.
The report also mentions that Danes and the transport sector have purchased more electric vehicles than expected. And sales of fossil fuels have moved to Sweden, just 20 minutes away via the Oresund bridge from Copenhagen, due to lower petrol taxes there.
The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities notes that the projection is an estimate for the future and that certain factors can derail Denmark’s current course. Prices, human behavior, technology and unstable weather are all elements that can change the projection.
That is why experts warn against slackening the pace of the green transition as, for example, a potent storm could blow trees away, which Denmark relies on to maintain the positive numbers.
“These are figures where the researchers behind them have pointed out very large uncertainties, so we must be careful when we say that we are almost there,” said Karsten Capion, senior analyst at the green think tank Concito to Danish newswire Ritzau.
The think tank advises all sectors to focus on structural changes by removing polluting elements or replacing them with climate-friendly solutions, like what the transport sector is doing with electric vehicles.
That is something that Morten Høyer, political director of Danish Industries — the country’s biggest private business and employers’ organization — agrees with. He urged politicians to keep ambitions high and proceed to target complete climate neutrality.
“Total CO2 emissions are heading down the right path, and Denmark is on the right course. The many reductions have not come about by themselves, but have required courageous decisions and efforts in Danish business life, which we must now build on,” Høyer said in a statement.
In addition to transportation, agriculture remains the biggest contributor of CO2 emissions in Denmark. Like other European countries, Danish farmers have displayed dissatisfaction over potential economic fees for their production, which may be levied if Denmark wants to keep its current course.
“We will continue to gain new knowledge and better methods for calculating CO2 emissions, and the figures can change from year to year,” Aagaard said. “However, this does not change the fact that agriculture will continue to account for nearly half of Denmark's emissions in 2030.”
He added: “Therefore, we must proceed to have a CO2 tax on agriculture to reach the 2030 target and fulfill the ambition in the agricultural agreement."
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