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Delayed Census Data Throws Wrench Into Virginia House Elections

A delay in redistricting data from the U.S. Census Bureau has thrown the constitutionality of Virginia's House of Delegates races into question.

RICHMOND, Va. (CN) — A Virginia lawmaker is expressing concern about the legality of this year's House of Delegates elections as census issues have forced the state to run races for all 100 seats on old maps in violation of the state’s constitution.

“It’s pretty obvious that the constitution requires new maps for this election,” said Delegate Lee Carter, D-Manassas, in a phone interview Thursday morning. “It says ‘shall,’ not ‘may,’ and there’s no wiggle room here. I’m not a lawyer but I’m a legislator so I know the difference between ‘shall’ and ‘may,’ so we need to run on new maps.” 

Virginia is one of two states that runs legislative races in odd years, with New Jersey being the other. This usually means they get early access to census data, but delays blamed on the coronavirus pandemic means that data has been pushed back to the end of the year. 

Still, the Virginia Constitution is clear that the state must be reapportioned every 10 years, and, thanks to the recent passage of a constitutional amendment, that process must start in 2021. 

Carter said he wasn’t aware of the issue until someone brought it up to him, but once he learned about the possible issues he sent a letter to Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring, a fellow Democrat, asking for an opinion on the matter. The letter was sent late last month but he’s gotten no response, which he says also violates the state constitution. 

“I guess I wouldn't be surprised if he ignored the constitutional requirement to give an opinion about the Department of Elections' constitutional requirement to have new maps,” he said of Herring’s lack of response.   

In a written statement, Herring’s office said it does not comment on pending opinion requests. 

Concerns about the legality of Virginia’s 2021 elections aren’t new, but they haven’t been expressed in public much.

Delegates had been rumbling about constitutional concerns in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak and now, with six months to election day, they admit there’s little they can do except run on the old maps. 

“The state constitution says we have to [use new maps], but we’re proceeding on the basis that it’s practically impossible,” said Delegate Marcus Simon, D-Fairfax, in a March interview about using maps drawn in 2011 this year. “Everybody’s taken the conservative approach; the less said, the better.” 

Simon is a member of the state’s constitutionally created Redistricting Commission. He said hopes for a 2021 redraw faded shortly after the Census Bureau told legislators data wouldn’t be available by the usual time in early May.

Most candidates and incumbents appear not too worried about it as many of the race and primary campaigns are well under way, including Carter’s and Simon's. 

While Carter’s is still waiting for an answer from the attorney general, the reality appears in the short term that the races will go on, but exactly how is still in question.

Simon offered a few possibilities. One is the easiest: run elections this year on old maps and make new maps in time for 2023. 

Another option involves running again next year under new maps and keeping House of Delegates races in even years alongside their congressional counterparts. Simon says there are pros and cons to that idea. 

“We’re one of the only games in town - getting employees and consultants is cheaper cause they’re trying to stay employed for the odd year,” he said. He also pointed to the calculus involved in gubernatorial years, like 2021, where running more or less candidates in delegate races can increase, or decrease, turn out at the top of the ballot. 

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He also considered the “reverse coattails” aspect of running alongside federal elections. 

“There would be more coordination,” he said, noting while delegates can be involved in congressional races, as of now it’s a less direct connection. 

The reason why Virginia holds odd year elections is also subject to some debate. Home to the “oldest continuous English-speaking representative legislative assembly,” according to Virginia House historical records, the state's first two-year terms for delegates started in 1859. 

Carter suggested it's no coincidence the odd years started around the time of the Civil War. 

“It’s a voter suppression tact and we do need to end it,” he said. Numbers from the state show that, whether it's voter fatigue, the lack of federal races or voter suppression, Virginia's odd year races do have lower turn out.  

Then there’s a third option: making the delegates run three years in a row. Delegates would run on the old maps this year and then turn around and run again on new maps next year, but then run once more in 2023 to keep the odd-year calendar. 

Carter called that idea a “nightmare.” 

“It has all the headaches of the other plans with none of the benefits,” he added. 

Simon also noted the last time the House was forced to run three years in a row, it was ordered by a judge. 

Back in 1981, the conservative House pushed through a map that violated federal election laws by failing to properly represent minority districts. The U.S. Department of Justice brought the elected body to court and it was forced to draw new maps. But those maps once again failed to pass muster, so U.S. District Judge John D. Butzner Jr. ordered new maps and three consecutive elections. 

"The judge said 'go fix this mistake you made' and they didn’t," Simon said. "There was a punitive aspect to making them run three years in a row.”

But Carter offered a fourth option: using the Census Bureau's American Community Survey to draw new maps. The ACS is conducted annually by surveying a portion of the population, 3.5 million American households, and helps determine federal spending between census updates.  

“It would be more up to date and better than the 2011 data,” Carter said before pointing to the language of the state constitution, which only says the basis for redraws is “the receipt of census data."

If it was up to him, the state would void June primaries and push them to August or September, giving the redistricting committee time to use ACS data to draw new maps. 

“No matter which side you take a bite from, it's still a shit sandwich,” Carter said of the bind state lawmakers find themselves in. 

As for addressing the issue in the courts, Carter said he’d prefer to resolve the problem without a judge, but he didn’t discount the idea entirely. 

Simon noted the possibility of someone filing suit as well, but considering the novel nature of the complaint, questions about who could file and what the courts could actually do are still unknown. 

“These poor people in Loudon County with hundreds of thousands of citizens compared to rural districts with less, it's not fair to them; they don’t have proper proportional representation,” Simon said of the rapidly expanding Washington suburb whose growth has come in part from minority residents. He suggested if a suit was filed, maybe one of those residents could be the plaintiff. 

“There are pros and cons to different potential remedies so you’d need people to argue from both sides and have a neutral party decide what the best approach would be,” he said.

As of now, Virginia’s primary elections are still set for June. And as for new maps, pending judicial intervention, data is expected by September with a possible vote approving redraws based on those numbers just as voters head to the polls in November.

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