(CN) — In a blow to the European Union and NATO's unity over Ukraine, conservative Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković was at risk of losing his parliamentary majority after national elections on Wednesday saw solid support for his chief rival, a center-left alliance led by the country's president, a critic of the West's staunch support for Ukraine.
Plenković's Croatian Democratic Union, better known by the initials HDZ, came in first in the snap elections, but it was expected to lose several seats in the 151-seat unicameral parliament, the Sabor, partial official results showed.
HDZ was set to hold onto 60 seats, but that was not enough to claim an absolute majority. It was expected to enter into difficult coalition talks.
The center-right party has won every parliamentary election since 2015 and it's largely been at the helm since Croatia gained independence from the former Yugoslavia in 1991.
Its main rival, an opposition electoral alliance called Rivers of Justice and led by the center-left Social Democratic Party, was on pace to pick up 42 seats.
SDP is led by Croatian President Zoran Milanović, an outspoken critic of the West's steadfast support for Ukraine arguing it has prolonged a war that Kyiv can't win against a mightier Russia.
Milanović has pushed for negotiations to end the war and voiced views about the conflict and its origins similar to those expressed by the Kremlin. He also has said that for Europe to be safe it must recognize Russia's security demands; blocked the training of Ukrainian troops in Croatia; and opposed sending arms shipments to Ukraine.
By contrast, Plenković ardently backs Ukraine as well as NATO's efforts to help it fight Russia. On the campaign trail, Plenković said Milanović wanted to bring Croatia into the “Russian world.”
The rest of the parliamentary seats are expected to be split among smaller parties, including the right-wing Homeland Movement, the conservative Bridge of Independent Lists and a green-left alliance called We Can!
The poor showing by HDZ left open the possibility that SDP might be able to cobble together a coalition. But analysts said a HDZ-led government remains the most likely outcome, though it might be difficult for HDZ to find partners.
“A string of corruption scandals during the past term in office has cast a shadow on the party,” Andrius Tursa, an analyst at the political risk firm Teneo, said in a briefing note.
HDZ presents itself as a stable hand that's guided Croatia into using the euro currency and entering the Schengen area, the European Union's passport-free zone, Tursa noted.
Tursa said a Milanović-led government might make Croatia “adopt a more Euroskeptic and Russia-friendly tone in foreign policy.”
“Milanović is known for his emotional and often controversial rhetoric, which could strain Croatia’s ties with Western countries,” he said.
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.
Follow @cainburdeau
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