(CN) — Deaths continued to outpace births and migration in the European Union in 2021, resulting in a 1% population decline, according to data published Monday.
The EU’s statistical office Eurostat first reported a population drop in 2020, driven by deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic. To date, the virus has infected at least 149 million EU residents and claimed 1.1 million lives, per the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.
"Given the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic since 2020, the fact that the number of deaths is expected to further increase because of the aging population, and assuming that fertility rates remain at a relatively low level, the negative natural change could well continue,” the report explained.
Future population growth in the EU will likely be driven by migration.
An estimated 5.2 million people in EU member states died last year — roughly 113,000 more deaths than the previous year. In 2020, the EU tracked 531,000 more deaths than in 2019.
The birth rate remained constant over the last two years with about 4 million babies born, while migration increased from 800,000 in 2020 to 1.1 million in 2021.
The figures represent a rare population decline for the bloc, which steadily added 92.3 million people to its population over the last 60 years. The continent counted 354.5 million people in 1960, compared to 446.8 million today.
But growth has slowed in recent years. After adding an average 3 million people per year during the 1960s, growth dropped to nearly a quarter of that — 700,000 people per year — from 2005 onward.
With 93.2 million people, Germany is the most populous country in the EU followed by France (68 million) and Italy (59 million). With just 500,000 people, Malta has the smallest population followed closely by Luxembourg (645,000) and Cyprus (904,000).
In all, 10 member states, including Italy and Slovenia, reported population losses last year, while the rest reported increases, ranging from France’s 185,900 to Estonia’s gain of 1,700. Population increases were attributed to natural change—a birthrate that outpaces the deathrate — and migration in nine states, Migration alone drove population changes in the remaining nine countries, as the birthrate fell below the deathrate.
Half of the member states reporting population losses reported a decline in natural change along side an increase in migration. The other half saw decreases in both natural change and migration.
Roughly 10 years after reaching 7 billion people, the global population is expected to hit 8 billion this year.
"Reaching a global population of 8 billion is a numerical landmark, but our focus must always be on people. In the world we strive to build, 8 billion people means 8 billion opportunities to live dignified and fulfilled lives,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres in a statement on the occasion of World Population Day. Guterres is from Portugal.
While medical advances have driven longer lives and lessened child and maternal deaths, the world continues to face detrimental disruptions from conflict and climate change. At current rates, the planet will nevertheless see 8.5 billion humans by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and more than 10 billion before the next century.
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