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Thursday, April 18, 2024 | Back issues
Courthouse News Service Courthouse News Service

Challenging Cruz for Senate seat, two Texas Democrats emerge as frontrunners

Texas Democrats will kick off the 2024 election season by selecting a candidate to take on Ted Cruz for his U.S. Senate seat.

(CN) — With the March primary election fast approaching, Democrats in Texas will soon choose a nominee to take on incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz. 

A polarizing figure, Cruz was first elected to the Senate in 2012. He’s since aligned himself closely with former President Donald Trump, including during efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. In 2018, Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke lost to Ted Cruz by less than three percent of the vote in the closest Senate election in Texas in decades. 

O’Rourke isn’t running this year, and Texas Democrats are instead investing their hopes in new candidates.

Amid a crowded primary ballot, three candidates have stood out.

Those candidates — Colin Allred, Roland Gutierrez and Carl Sherman Sr. — were the only ones invited to take the stage at a Democratic primary debate in Austin in January. But Sherman has struggled to break beyond single-digit support, and the primary election will likely come down to Allred and Gutierrez, who are trying markedly different strategies in their efforts to appeal to Texas voters.

Colin Allred, a U.S. Congressman from northeast Dallas, heads into March with a commanding lead in the field. Allred was first elected to the U.S. House in 2018, when he defeated longtime Republican incumbent Pete Sessions. 

In his six years in Congress, Allred has frequently called for bipartisanship while also remaining a reliable vote on key Democratic legislation, including the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. But beyond a few sparse remarks on the House floor and the occasional press release, Allred represents something of a blank slate for primary voters.

State Senator Roland Gutierrez has represented his hometown of San Antonio for more than a decade in the Texas legislature. He spent 14 years in the Texas House, from 2008 to 2021. In 2020, he ran for and won the race for Texas Senate District 19, a sprawling district that stretches from San Antonio out to the rural borderland regions of West Texas.

After keeping a low profile in the Texas House, Gutierrez has emerged as a key opposition figure in the conservative Texas Senate. In contrast to Allred, he’s pitched himself as an ardent progressive. 

One issue has defined his term in the Texas Senate more than any other: guns. The 2022 shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde struck the heart of Gutierrez’s district. Ever since, the senator has been a constant advocate for stricter gun regulations, including as the author of the Robb Elementary Firearm Safety Act, which would have raised the minimum age for purchasing a range of semiautomatic rifles if it had passed. (It did not.)

While Gutierrez’s strong stance on gun control has garnered him support among progressives, it has the potential to turn off moderate and conservative-leaning voters — including on-the-fence Republicans that a Democratic candidate may need in November. 

At the primary debate in January, Allred highlighted his bipartisan bona fides. Earlier this month, he joined with Republicans as an early supporter of the Senate’s bipartisan immigration bill. Controversially, that bill made reference to President Joe Biden’s so-called “open-border policies.”

If Allred wants to appeal to voters across the aisle, Gutierrez instead wants to fire up the Democratic base in Texas. At the debate, he harshly criticized Allred for his support of that immigration bill.

A Democrat can win in November not by “moving to the middle” but by “inspiring every Democrat in this state” to come out and vote, Gutierrez said. Allred apparently views the race differently, retorting that “I’ve built broad coalitions in my campaigns” and “that’s how you win tough races.”

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Also on stage that night was State Representative Carl Sherman Sr., who has trailed both Gutierrez and Allred with about one-percent support.

A late entry into the race, Sherman has focused his campaign on leadership values rather than specific policy positions. Nonetheless, his voting record suggests he’s a strong progressive, including as a staunch advocate for improving prison conditions in the state.

Sherman won election to the state House in 2018, representing a solidly blue district in the Dallas area. Previously, he served as mayor of his hometown of DeSoto. He is also an active senior pastor and a rising star in the Texas Legislative Black Caucus. 

Then there are the remaining candidates, all of whom have struggled to gain support and were not invited to the debate in January. Among them are former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez, businessman Ahmad Hassan, startup founder Heli Rodriguez Prilliman and Houston organizer Thierry Tchenko.

A sign directs voters to a polling location in Austin, Texas, on Oct. 19, 2021. (Kirk McDaniel/Courthouse News)

Despite the crowded field, Allred and Gutierrez have attracted the most attention from Democratic voters. Recent polls show Allred with a big lead over Gutierrez.

A poll released in February by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston showed that among likely Democratic voters, 40% intended to cast their vote for Allred, while 12% were planning on voting for Gutierrez. The poll also found that 38% of voters were still undecided on which candidate they would be voting for come Super Tuesday. 

Other polls have shown even larger margins for Allred. A Feb. 19 poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin found that a staggering 52% of potential Democratic voters said that they would be voting for Allred in the primary. 

In that poll, 14% of voters said they planned to vote for Gutierrez, while another 18% said they planned on voting for someone else. If Congressman Allred wins the primary with a majority of votes, he could avert a runoff election, which would likely come down to himself and Gutierrez. 

Allred’s lead is likely driven by his early entry into the race, Joshua Blank, director of research at the Texas Politics Project, told Courthouse News in an interview. 

“When he entered the race, nobody was talking about the Senate race at that point,” Blank said. “It would have been very easy for the congressman to sit in that congressional seat and probably hold it for as long as he wanted to.”

Instead, Allred first announced his candidacy back in May 2023. His quick entry into the race allowed him to court donors and bolster his funds months before many voters were even thinking about the primary.

With that early start, Allred entered 2024 with over $10 million cash on hand. Of those funds, he raised a whopping $4.8 million in just the final quarter of last year, according to the Federal Elections Commission.

Gutierrez, on the other hand, raised just $433,424.68 during that same three-month period. Allred’s prior experience campaigning for the U.S. House has given him greater fundraising connections, said Calvin Jillson, a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University.

“It just takes more money to run for the U.S. House than it does for the Texas Senate,” Jillson said in an interview. “Allred had more experience in fundraising. He had a list of people who had supported him in the past. And so when he declared for the United States Senate, people around the country took a look at him and thought that they saw at least a potentially attractive candidate, and his fundraising increased from there.” 

Blank, the Texas Politics Project director, gave other possible explanations for Gutierrez’s lag in fundraising. Among them: his inability to transfer funds raised for previous elections into his election for federal office. 

Furthermore, Blank said, where either candidate is from may also be a contributing factor to their ability to attract donors. Gutierrez “represents a largely economically depressed part of the state, whereas [Allred] is from Dallas,” he explained. In glitzy Dallas, “there is a lot more connection to resources in those areas.” He also noted that Allred may have had assurances from the Democratic Party “that he should run and that he would be funded — not just from within Texas.” 

On the other side of the aisle, Ted Cruz is also preparing for a showdown in November. The Republican incumbent ended 2023 with more than $6 million cash on hand after reportedly raising $5.5 million across three separate campaign accounts. 

With two little-known challengers, Cruz is expected to handily win his party’s nomination. The conservative firebrand remains largely popular among Texas Republicans, and denying Cruz a third term as the Lone Star State’s senator will therefore be a challenge to any Democratic nominee.

A challenge — but not an impossible one. It would be a big deal for Congressman Allred to secure the nomination on Super Tuesday, Jillson said, as it could show him to be a strong and unifying candidate well before his general election face-off with Cruz. Such a show of support might even attract the same national interest that Beto O’Rourke did during his near-win in 2018. 

“If Allred were to show real strength in Super Tuesday primary, that might well encourage national money to come into this race and support him, the way it did in Beto O'Rourke's race,” Jillson said. Once the nomination is claimed, he said, the Democratic candidate will need to “capture people’s imagination inside Texas and beyond” if he or she wants to become the first Democrat to win statewide office in over a quarter-century. 

Early voting is underway across the state through Friday, March 1st, with regular voting on the 5th. Texas voters can find a local polling place and check their registration at votetexas.gov.

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Categories / Elections, Politics, Regional

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