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Sunday, May 26, 2024 | Back issues
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Biden Up by 6 Points Over Trump Among Likely Nevada Voters

Former Vice President Joe Biden enjoys a healthy lead in the crucial state of Nevada despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to bring the state back under GOP control, according to a poll released Tuesday.

(CN) — Former Vice President Joe Biden enjoys a healthy lead in the crucial state of Nevada despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to bring the state back under GOP control, according to a poll released Tuesday.

While once considered a swing state during presidential contests, Nevada has gradually found itself becoming a more favorable battleground for Democrats in recent election history. Not only did Hillary Clinton claim victory in the Silver State four years ago, but a Republican has not carried Nevada since George W. Bush managed a small victory there against John Kerry in 2004.

This troubling trend for Republicans has not stopped Trump from attempting to flip the state red once again. He has visited the state at least twice in recent months and is currently set to hold a rally right across the border in Bullhead City, Arizona, on Wednesday.

Nevada has also been hit hard by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, with a reported 96,000 Covid-19 cases and more than 1,750 deaths in the state so far. The pandemic has also taken a serious toll on the state’s economy and unemployment statistics, leaving many to wonder how these new realities will influence Nevada voters when it comes time to cast their presidential ballots.

Despite these uncertainties and efforts by the GOP to flip Nevada, new polling data suggests the state will stay blue.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Tuesday reports that with just a week to go before Election Day, 49% of likely Nevada voters say they are behind Biden while just 43% say they support Trump, a six-point lead for the Democratic nominee that falls outside the margin of error. Another 4% of voters in the state say they remain undecided or opted not to share which candidate they preferred.

Pollsters did their survey after the final presidential debate last week, one of the last major opportunities for both candidates to make their case to voters in the final days of the election. Nearly 70% of likely Nevada voters watched the debate according to Tuesday’s poll.

The figures reported Tuesday fall in line with a previous poll that gave Biden a similar edge over Trump in early October, suggesting that the aftermath of Trump’s positive Covid-19 test, subsequent stint in the hospital and general post-recovery campaign performance have done little to move the needle.

Biden’s lead in the Nevada poll comes from a handful of voting groups that have been reliably in Biden’s camp during the election. Biden commands double-digit leads among women and voters under 30 and holds a small but respectable advantage over Trump among senior voters. Biden also does exceptionally well among Hispanic voters in Nevada, leading the president by nearly 30 points — a potentially pivotal statistic for Biden given that Hispanic voters make up roughly a fifth of eligible voters in the state.

Trump is of course not without his own bastions of supporters in the state, though not by the same margins being enjoyed by his rival. Trump leads Biden among white voters by just over 10 points, leads among white voters without college degrees and holds on to a seven-point lead among men.

Like numerous other polls released during this election cycle, Tuesday’s poll indicates Trump’s polling deficit may come down to the fact that many voters don’t have a very positive view of him. Among Nevada respondents, 43% say they have a “very unfavorable” view of the president, a number that includes 55% of non-white voters.

For comparison, just over half of those asked say they had a favorable view of Biden.

Tuesday’s poll of 809 likely Nevada voters contains a 3.8% margin of error.

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