(CN) — A Georgia poll released on Wednesday shows the presidential race gridlocked in the historically conservative state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1992.
But a look at the rest of the study by Monmouth University shows deep loyalties to the GOP in the other down-ballot races.
Among surveyed Georgia voters, 47% support President Donald Trump with the same percentage going for presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden.
Three percent go for the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and another 3% are undecided.
In the Senate races, incumbent Republican David Perdue has a seven point lead over his challenger, Democrat Jon Ossoff.
The other Senate seat is a special election, featuring 20 challengers before the August primary, and yet, Kelly Loeffler, appointed to the seat when Johnny Isakson resigned last year, already has more than a quarter votes, according to the poll. When pollsters asked Trump supporters who they would vote for, she received 47%.
Georgia is still red.
“I’ll be surprised if Donald Trump doesn’t win Georgia in November,” Gregg Murray, professor of political science at Augusta University said. “We have a long history of pre-election presidential polling where things that seem unusual. Once you get closer to the election, people become more tied to their regular foundations. And they tend to go home.”
Trump won Georgia by five points in 2016. County polling from the last couple decades of presidential elections do not show a large shift of political alliances, except for the Atlanta suburbs. Only fourteen counties were considered swing during the 2016 elections.
Despite the galvanizing of voters for the last gubernatorial election, and variables of the economy and coronavirus, the Monmouth Poll shows Georgia may continue as a solidly conservative state.
“Georgia has been Republican pretty much since the 70s,” Murray said. “The undercurrents here are very strong Republican and you can see in those numbers.”
“To think they are going to go to a northeastern Democrat is a little bit, I think it’s a little unlikely,” he added.
The poll also asked Georgia voters about mask mandates and the response to the pandemic.
About 63% of those surveyed said cities should be able to mandate masks rules more than statewide regulations — an opposite reaction than the governor, who sued Atlanta over its stringent regulations.
And yet, while Kemp has taken some heat for his response to the pandemic nationally, the Monmouth poll showed those surveyed say Kemp has done a good job dealing with Covid-19 — even a few points more than Trump.
“Is Kemp’s position on [masks] going to backlash against Trump?” Murray said. “My gut on this is no it is not, particularly because Trump has modified his position on this.”