CHARLESTON, S.C. (CN) — Donald Trump’s dominant win in the Iowa caucuses set up what could be a last stand for his Republican rivals in South Carolina.
After a third-place finish in Iowa, Nikki Haley has her sights on New Hampshire, where she hopes moderate Republican and independent voters will give her campaign its first win in the presidential nominating contest.
But the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24 may offer the state’s former governor her best chance to prove she can woo the diehard conservative and Evangelical voters who propelled Trump to a 51-point win in Iowa.
Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis headed straight for the Palmetto State after an underwhelming performance in the first contest. The Florida governor told supporters in Greenville on Tuesday his campaign would focus its efforts there instead of New Hampshire, which holds its primary Jan. 23.
It’s a long shot. Trump was polling above 50% in South Carolina as of Jan. 18, according to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. Haley registered 25% and DeSantis only 12%.
Dave Woodard, a veteran GOP strategist in the state, said the campaign calendar has forced DeSantis into a tough battle in the Palmetto State.
“It’s like fighting in Gettysburg,” Woodard said. “You didn’t want to do it if you were General Lee, but you didn’t have a choice.”
Woodard said Trump’s commanding victory in Iowa spelled trouble for his rivals in South Carolina. The former president has a strong base of support in the southern state. If those voters turn out like they did in Iowa, neither DeSantis nor Haley can beat him, he said.
Danielle Vinson, a political science professor at Furman University in Greenville, agreed with Woodard.
“The evangelical support is particularly strong — they are apparently not put off by the indictments and court trials,” Vinson said. “That group is important in SC, so that’s good news for Trump.”
Haley has succeeded in forcing everyone out of the race who would appeal to non-Trump voters. Now the former U.N. ambassador needs to prove she can win Trump’s supporters, Vinson said.
“If he keeps winning more than 50% in the primaries, she has no way to win the nomination,” Vinson said. “Unless she starts giving those voters a reason not to vote for Trump — either criticizing him directly or raising doubts about his ability to win a general election — she will finish a distant second in SC, and that won’t be good enough.”
Democrats will vote before the Republicans duke it out, however.
South Carolina kicks off the Democratic primaries for the first time this year after the Democratic National Committee approved a proposal last year to move the state to the top of the party’s presidential nominating calendar.
President Joe Biden isn’t expected to face any serious challengers on Feb. 3, but his campaign is using the contest to bolster his support ahead of the general election, particularly among Black and Hispanic voters.
He launched his campaign in South Carolina with a speech at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church, where a racist gunman fatally shot nine Black parishioners in 2015. He warned that white supremacy remained a persistent threat to democracy, while drawing comparisons between modern election deniers and Confederate sympathizers who promoted the “lost cause” myth.
Biden pushed for South Carolina to lead the Democratic primaries after a dominant win in the state breathed life into his campaign and helped him secure the presidential nomination in 2020. Party leaders in Iowa and New Hampshire criticized the decision, but Vinson argued the move made sense.
South Carolina is the only state early in the primaries with a significant African-American population, an important constituency for Democrats across the country, Vinson said.
Ideologically, South Carolina Democrats tend to favor centrists, she said.
“They're not prone to backing strong progressive candidates that might be great in a Democratic primary, but struggle to win over independent voters in the general election,” Vinson said.
A heated primary campaign generates local jobs and boosts spending in the state, she said.
So far, Republicans have focused their spending on Iowa and New Hampshire.
An analysis of political ad expenditures by NPR’s Morning Edition showed almost $270 million was spent in the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses.
The bulk of the money was spent in Iowa and New Hampshire — $170 million.
As of Jan. 11, only $6 million had been spent in South Carolina, but that will change as the remaining candidates turn their attention to the Palmetto State, Vinson said.
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