Erdoğan suffers worst election defeat since coming to power in 2003

(CN) — In the biggest election defeat since coming to power 21 years ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's conservative Islamist party was trounced in municipal elections that took place across the country on Sunday.

The center-left Republican People's Party, Turkey's oldest political party and Erdoğan's longtime rival, scored a stunning victory by winning ballots in Turkey's largest cities, including Istanbul, Europe's biggest metropolis with 16 million residents, and Ankara, the capital. The party even managed to pick up gains in more conservative inland provinces seen as Erdoğan strongholds.

It was the first time since 1977 that the Republican People's Party won the most votes in nationwide elections. Nationally, it picked up about 37.7% of the ballot, about 2% more than Erdoğan's conservative Justice and Development Party, known by its Turkish initials AKP.

In a late-night speech after the results came in, Erdoğan called the election a “turning point” for his party and vowed to learn from it.

“The March 31 elections mark a turning point,” he said, speaking from a balcony of his presidential palace. “We will assess the results and engage in self-criticism. Results show we lost momentum. We will discuss the cause of this recession. We will detect problems and take necessary steps.”

The crushing defeat signaled trouble for Erdoğan, but political analysts said Erdoğan can recover from the loss.

“It would be naive and erroneous to assume that this setback marks the beginning of the end for Erdoğan,” said Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst for Teneo, a political risk firm, in a briefing note.

Erdoğan was re-elected last May in national elections despite deep economic turmoil and growing discontent with his authoritarian rule. In those elections, he also saw his alliance of nationalists, conservatives and Islamists hold onto a majority in Turkey's parliament.

Last year's election was a major blow to those in Turkey who see Erdoğan as an authoritarian ruler who has seriously undermined democracy and weakened the NATO alliance by cultivating warmer ties with Russia and China.

Pundits said his party's losses on Sunday came down to a lackluster campaign by Erdoğan, the fielding of mediocre AKP candidates, anger over the ongoing economic crisis, voter apathy and the siphoning off of hard-core voters by the New Welfare Party, a rival Islamist group that accused Erdoğan of hypocrisy over his stance toward Israel's assault on Gaza. Erdoğan has spoken out harshly against Israel, but he has stopped short of cutting off trade with Israel.

But Turkey's persistent economic crisis — rampant inflation, a weak currency, low foreign investment and dwindling foreign currency reserves — was likely the chief reason for the loss.

Since his re-election, Erdoğan has failed to quickly resolve Turkey's economic troubles even though he's adopted more orthodox solutions, including central bank interest rate increases and austerity.

To the dismay of many economists, he previously opposed raising interest rates to fight inflation, in part due to his Islamic beliefs against usury. However, inflation remains extremely high despite his U-turn and in February it was recorded at 67%. Many Turks are clamoring for minimum wage and pension increases to offset their losses.

Piccoli doubted the election loss will cause Erdoğan to change course on his economic policies and will not make him “move towards greater political accommodation given his aversion to share power.”

Indeed, he expected Erdoğan to “not tone down his polarizing rhetoric due to this stinging defeat.”

Marc Pierini, an expert on Turkey at Carnegie Europe, a think tank, said Erdoğan may seek to divert the public's attention away from the defeat by bombing Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq.

For the opposition, Sunday's municipal wins came as a major boost and renewed hopes of countering Erdoğan's push to undo Turkey's secularism and consolidate his authoritarian regime.

In 2017, Erdoğan strengthened his hold on power with the passage of constitutional changes that turned Turkey from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. He is now attempting to undo Turkey's constitutionally mandated secularism by making Islam the country's state religion.

Sunday's election makes Ekrem Imamoğlu a favorite contender to lead CHP against Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential elections.

CHP was founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the father of the modern Turkish republic, as a modernizing, secularist and leftist party. It gets much of its support from urban areas along the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts.

Imamoğlu first upset Erdoğan by winning the Istanbul elections in 2019. On Sunday, he was re-elected with about 51% of the vote, or 11% more than his AKP rival.

“With his re-election as Istanbul mayor in his pocket, Imamoğlu is now the opposition’s only alternative to Erdoğan,” Piccoli said. “However, his path ahead is a steep one.”

Imamoğlu faces a two-year ban from politics after a Turkish court in late 2022 found him guilty of insulting members of the Supreme Electoral Council after the results of the 2019 mayoral election in Istanbul were contested. His appeal is pending.

“Tonight, Istanbul has spoken clearly: Our collective desire for democracy shines brighter than ever, marking a pivotal step towards unity and the end of polarization,” Imamoğlu, 53, said after his win. “At a time when the world witnesses a retreat from democratic values, our city stands as a beacon of hope.”

Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.

Follow @cainburdeau

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