MARSEILLE, France (CN) — As President Emmanuel Macron weathers backlash over his comments about sending ground troops to Ukraine, experts argue his change in posture results from factors both personal and strategic.
Macron hasn’t always taken a strongman stance toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s advancement in Ukraine, the $60 billion military aid package stuck in the U.S. Congress and the opportunity for France to assert its position as an EU leader play a role.
Now, Russia is making territorial gains in Ukraine, prompting Macron to shift strategy, Hall Gardner, a professor in Paris specializing in the diplomatic origins of war, told Courthouse News. The situation is more precarious because of the U.S. debate over sending an aid package to Ukraine in a time where the army is critically short on munitions.
Gardner says that the lack of U.S. support is one of the main reasons that Macron is sounding a new note.
“These factors are forcing Macron to think tougher,” Gardner said. “He’s afraid he won’t have the American backing he had before, and therefore Europe has to step up to the plate.”
Macron's initial comments prompted a very public rift between France and its allies across the European Union.
At a meeting of 20 European leaders at the Elysee presidential palace in February, he said, “There’s no consensus today to send in an official, endorsed manner troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out.”
The heads of Germany, Poland and others quickly said they would not be sending ground troops to Ukraine.
During a live television interview with France 2 on Thursday, Macron reiterated his stance that he wouldn’t rule out the possibility of putting boots on the ground.
"If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility would be reduced to zero,” Macron said. He also said that now is not the moment to send in troops.
The following day, Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met in Berlin in a show of European unity. Without commenting on their differences, the so-called Weimar Triangle nations vowed to supply Kyiv with more weapons and step up production of military equipment along with partners in Ukraine.
“[The disagreement over Macron’s comments presents] a dilemma that Putin’s going to play with as he tries to divide the allies, divide Germany, France and the United States,” Gardner said.
At the onset of the war, Macron began with a different tack, reaching out to Putin and being careful not to demonize him in the media, hoping to end the war through peaceful negotiations.
A few days before the beginning of the war, Macron sat with Putin at the Kremlin in a widely publicized attempt to halt the impending invasion.
Last year, at the Munich Security Conference, Macron said he had been fooled by Putin and had approached him with a bit of naivety over the Wagner Group — an unexpected admission from a world leader. His attempts to talk things out with Putin were sometimes criticized as childlike.
“Putin didn’t ever really listen to Macron, he didn’t take him seriously,” Olivier Kempf, a researcher at France’s Foundation for Strategic Research, told Courthouse News. “That probably pissed off the president … . Personal reasons are definitely playing a little bit of a role.”
Kempf points out that Macron's positioning aligns with the notion of European strategic autonomy, something the president has been advocating since he came into office. The possibility of Donald Trump retaking the presidency in the November elections has Europe worried that U.S. strategy on the war could shift. Behind the increasing support for Ukraine, there’s a European policy calculation, an attempt to unite Europe to take part in this mission without relying on American support.
The French public, however, isn’t on board. Recent polls show that between 60% and 85% of participants are against sending in French troops.
“So he also runs domestic political risks,” Kempf explained. “We’re [about] three months away from the European elections, and polls show that the French do not agree at all with this prospect of sending troops to Ukraine, so you have a credibility challenge.”
But Oleg Kobtzeff, a geopolitics professor specializing in Eastern Europe, argues that if Macron doesn’t toughen his stance, Putin will take that as an opportunity to increase Russia’s gains.
“If you show any signs of weakness, you don’t show firmness, you’re not going to have negotiations at all,” Kobtzeff told Courthouse News. “On the contrary, you’re going to have more attacks by Putin, who has said clearly, ‘I’m not interested in negotiations unless these negotiations are a full capitulation over absolutely impossible demands.’”
Putin has repeatedly threatened that the war could expand. Kobtzeff argues that Macron has to take a tough stance to gain any sort of respect from the Kremlin, and points out that Putin often makes threats.
“It’s not Macron or anyone in the West who has been using dangerous talk, it’s Putin who has repeated several times, ‘If you don’t play ball, it’s going to be World War III,’” he said.
Kobtzeff believes both Macron and Putin come from the realist school of political thought. In the case of Macron, this is rooted in a French political tradition that dates back to Charles de Gaulle — the founder of France’s Fifth Republic and the country’s president from 1959-1969 — that still stands today.
This is also an opportunity for France to assert its dominance as the leading political force in Europe.
“Now that the U.K. is split from Europe, France is the only nuclear power that can at least talk tough against Moscow,” Gardner said. “This is a way for France to assert its leadership in the EU.”
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