(CN) - Voters will head to the polls in three western states on Tuesday, poised to make decisions that may be the first major test of whether the oft-predicted “blue wave” will materialize in November.
California, Montana and New Mexico are among the eight states hosting primary elections on June 5, asking voters to whittle large fields of candidates vying to represent their respective political parties in statewide gubernatorial races and national offices.
But for California, it’s a bit different.
California instituted a top-two or “jungle primary” system in 2011, allowing the top two vote-getting candidates, regardless of party, to advance to the general election in November.
While pundits continue to emphasize the vulnerability of all Republicans in the Golden State, where President Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular, the glut of Democratic candidates in historically Republican districts could dilute votes and pave the way for Republicans to advance to the general election.
Take California’s 49th Congressional District, which spans the coastal area of northern San Diego County to southern Orange County — and has functioned historically as a stronghold for the GOP in California.
That stronghold has shown recent vulnerabilities as Republicans throughout the Golden State continue to lose ground. President Donald Trump lost the district by 7 percent in 2016 and U.S. Representative Darrell Issa barely prevailed by 1 percent the same year, stoking Democratic optimism that they could leverage anti-Trump sentiment and pick up the House seat.
Issa has since announced he will step aside, and a slate of Democratic candidates have stepped up to fill the void.
California Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, the front-running Republican candidate vying to replace Issa, continues to enjoy a comfortable lead in the polls, appearing to be a shoe-in for the general in November.
Meanwhile, the four Democratic candidates are cannibalizing each other, igniting fears that none will advance, or that the one who does will emerge considerably weakened.
While Doug Applegate, a lawyer, has pulled ahead among the four Democrats, the party has expressed concern that the three other Democrats — Paul Kerr, Sarah Jacobs and Mike Levin — could siphon off enough votes to pave the way for Diane Harkey – the Republican running just behind Chavez —to sneak into the general election.
This would leave voters with a choice between two Republicans, preventing the blue wave that many expect to originate in California from cresting.
This nightmare scenario for Democrats — two Republicans making the runoff in contests for the House — isn’t relegated to the 49th Congressional District alone. Republican Representative Ed Royce recently vacated the 39th Congressional District, which covers northern Orange County and eastern Los Angeles, leaving it to face similar challenges.
Furthermore, incumbent Republican Representatives Dana Rohrabacher of Orange County, Jeff Denham from the Central Valley, Mimi Walters of Inland Orange County and Duncan Hunter of San Diego, while also viewed as vulnerable, stand to benefit from a crowded field of Democratic challengers fighting amongst themselves.
"It's definitely been a disruptive force in California politics, and we're just learning about some of the pros and cons," Mark Baldasarre, president of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, told the Associated Press in reference to the new primary system.
Nationwide, Democrats need to pick up 24 seats in November to take back control of the House.