Will the State of the Union be Biden’s ‘Ich bin ein Ukrainian’?

WASHINGTON (CN) — Thirteen months into his time in the Oval Office, President Joe Biden stands poised to give his first State of the Union address while the Russian invasion of Ukraine rages, fierce partisanship plagues Washington and his approval ratings sit at an all-time-low.

But the annual speech provides a rare opportunity for Biden to center the U.S. as a beacon for democracy on the world stage while acknowledging the work to be done at home.

While the State of the Union is typically a varied dance between touting legislative successes and recognizing the political issues yet to be solved, Biden must juggle these goals while also addressing Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which is likely to become the first and central focus of his address.

“That's a tricky line to walk for the president, because I'm not sure that the average American, presuming the average American even listens to this or watches it, but let's say the informed American who is going to pay attention to this — how much does that person care about Ukraine?" Barbara Perry, director of presidential studies at the University of Virginia's Miller Center, said.

The key will be Biden's messaging, which Perry says needs to tie support for Ukrainian democracy to the domestic fight to protect American democracy — a battle that's been raging since the start of Biden's presidency when the Jan. 6 insurrection kicked off fights about voting rights, factionalism and the peaceful transfer of power.

"The through-line should be: democracy in this country, democracy abroad, democracy in Europe," Perry said.

At a moment when his approval rating sits at a dismal 37% and Americans remain anxious about sweeping inflation despite record-setting job growth and an impressively low unemployment rate, the chance to speak authoritatively about the the United States's role in protecting freedom and territorial autonomy abroad could be a useful moment for Biden's presidency.

"It's also the issue in which he can show he’s being bipartisan and Republicans will have to stand and cheer when he says ‘We are fighting fully for the Ukrainians,'" Jeremi Suri, professor of public affairs and history at The University of Texas at Austin, said. “That's the image he wants, both sides standing and cheering for him. It’s that kind of Reagan moment that he's going to want. That's the presidential image. That’s what presidents get a boost from.”

If that moment happens, it wouldn't rewrite the state of American politics, Suri emphasized, but it could give Biden the chance to temporarily lower the temperature in Washington and show unified resolve against Putin.

"I’m not saying we’re going to have this kumbaya bipartisan moment, we're not. But we are going to have some bipartisan imagery and the president will look presidential," Suri said.

Perry compared Biden's opportunity at tonight's State of the Union to when John F. Kennedy stood before West Berlin's city hall in 1963 and condemned the creation of the Berlin Wall. Kennedy's speech became a rallying cry for unity against Soviet control and was known for its final line: "Ich bin ein Berliner"— I am a Berliner.

"This is Joe Biden's 'ich bin ein Ukrainian speech,'" Perry said.

Speaking on the war in Ukraine could also be Biden's mechanism for celebrating his political wins, such as the $1.2 trillion infrastructure law and the Covid-19 aid packages, while laying out the policy goals yet to be accomplished namely, chunks of the Build Back Better Act.

“He will try to leverage foreign policy as president and he will say, ‘Look at how the world is rallying to us, and that is because we have restored normalcy at home. We have taken on the pandemic and we have invested in our infrastructure, more people are voting and participating than ever before.' So he'll try to leverage that and say, 'We must do more,'" Suri said.

That "more" includes policies such as the Child Tax Credit and climate provisions that have stalled since the death of the Build Back Better Act, a major portion of Biden's agenda that derailed after Democrats couldn't get all members of their party on board with the legislation.

"He will probably couch those as ways to cushion the impact of inflation. And I think he needs to prepare Americans for at least short-term inflation continuing," Todd Belt, director of the political management program at George Washington University, said.

Consumer prices have been on the rise at historic rates throughout Biden's first year, jumping 7.5% from January 2021 to January 2022, well above projections and a rate not seen in decades.

"There's still an incredible amount of anxiety from A. Covid, B. the political instability of the last of several years, not least of which is an insurrection, and then, C. whatever inflation is going to be," Jeffrey Engel, director of the center for presidential history at Southern Methodist University, said.

How Biden handles that anxiety and describes inflation will be key to the tone of the speech and whether its message resonates with the American electorate, as the state of the economy is currently the top concern of 71% of U.S. adults.

"He's really got to express empathy and not just kind of paint a very rosy picture of just economic numbers that have increased during his presidency, knowing that there's a lot of Americans that are suffering, " said Aaron Kall, author of "The State of the Union is ... : Memorable Addresses of the Last Sixty Years."

Sanctions levied by the U.S. and its allies on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine are bound to affect the global economy, and U.S. prices, a reality Biden needs to acknowledge, while also tempering concerns by noting the job growth of the last year and low unemployment rate.

"This is going to be the hard part because there's going to be some sacrifice called upon Americans to offer and that's going to be probably increased prices, especially for fuel and wheat products, such as bread. He's going to have to temper this ‘We have to fight for democracy’ with ‘Sometimes that fight comes with costs,'" Perry said.

Follow @@rosemwagner

Subscribe to Closing Arguments

Sign up for new weekly newsletter Closing Arguments to get the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and hot cases and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world.

Email *

Submit