Will the impending Roe decision upend the LA mayor’s race?

Caruso, once a moderate Republican, then an independent (registered as a "no party preference"), switched his voter registration to Democrat in January months before launching his candidacy. He has pledged to fight crime by hiring 1,500 additional police officers, and to clear the streets of homeless encampments, by force of law if necessary. The positions are nearly identical to that of Buscaino, a former police officer, and not all that far off from the other candidates' stances.

"I am struck by how similar they are," said Stuart Waldman, president of the Valley Industry & Commerce Association, a business group. "It appears they all read the same poll."

The one issue that Caruso has had a monopoly on is that of "corruption," a word that may work with voters on multiple levels. First, there is the literal corruption that's plagued city hall for years. Scandals have led to the indictment of three Councilmen – Mitch Englander, Jose Huizar and Mark Ridley-Thomas and have plagued the city attorney's office as well, a major blow to Feuer's mayoral bid.

But Caruso's message may be playing on the public's perceived corruption as well. The city and the county have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to build housing for the homeless. But street encampments are still an everyday sight in LA, and there is a widely held perception that the city's policies on homelessness have failed.

"People don’t trust the city and the county to spend their money well on solutions to homelessness," said Quan. "And the corruption problem is tied to this — in the voters' minds."

A good number of voters are dissatisfied with the direction the city is going in, particularly around homelessness and crime. And so it's been difficult for de Leon, Buscaino and Feuer, all of whom have been ensconced within local government for years. They're forced to tout their own record, while also arguing for change, an apparent contradiction. Bass faces a similar challenge, although she can argue that her time was spent in Sacramento and D.C. Caruso alone can claim the mantle of "outsider."

"Homelessness, crime and distrust of city hall — those three things are the triad of Rick Caruso’s campaign that he’s leveraged very effectively," said Fernando Guerra, a political science professor at Loyola Marymount University. The money, of course, has helped too.

"Unfortunately, we do have a billionaire who’s trying to buy this race," said Mark Gonzalez, chair of LA County's Democratic Party. The party is not endorsing a candidate during the primary.

The dynamics of this year's race are eerily reminiscent of one nearly 30 years ago in 1993 when liberal City Councilman Mike Woo was defeated in a runoff by Richard Riordan, a moderate Republican millionaire who self-funded his own candidacy. Riordan spent $6 million on that election (about$12 million in today's money). He, too, pledged to fight crime by hiring more police officers. At a time when homicides were at an all-time high, his campaign slogan was, "Tough enough to turn LA around."

Like Caruso, Riordan was Catholic. He claimed to be pro-choice. But during the general election, the Woo campaign found a videotape of Riordan saying, on a public access cable show, that he agreed with the Catholic Church that abortion "is murder." Woo's team paid $10,000 for the tape, and ran a series of TV ads blasting Riordan both for what he said and for his dishonesty about it.

But the issue appeared to have little salience in a local election when crime was by far the greatest concern to voters. (Years later, the issue resurfaced when Riordan ran for governor. Sitting Governor Gray Davis spent $9 million on TV ads during the Republican primary, showing Riordan's sound bite. This time, the attacks found their mark, and Riordan was trounced by nearly 20 points, after once having led by 40, an astounding collapse.)

In a written statement, Caruso campaign adviser Lex Olbrei said, “The bottom line is Rick has always been pro-choice and has always supported Roe v Wade.” When asked if Los Angeles Magazine had made an error in 2007, Olbrei did not respond.

After news of the draft decision broke, Caruso tweeted that he disagreed with it "profoundly." The next day, he pledged to spend $1 million to help pass a constitutional amendment in California guaranteeing the right to an abortion in the state.

But Caruso has also given "nearly $1 million to policymakers who put forth legislation that criminalized abortion," as a letter by Planned Parenthood put it. That sum includes $240,000 to a political action committee supporting Republican presidential candidate John Kasich, $100,000 to a PAC supporting President George W. Bush's election, $50,000 to a PAC supporting Republican Congressman Kevin McCarthy and $4,300 to a PAC supporting Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

"He made anti-choice donations," said Gonzalez. "He’s funding the fuel of the hate fire."

"Rick has supported many candidates on both sides for public office including Jerry Brown, Gavin Newsom and Karen Bass," said Olbrei in a statement. "Some of them have disappointed him over the years, which is to be expected from politicians.”

Even if Karen Bass isn't taking Caruso to task over abortion, others are. An independent expenditure committee (the local equivalent of a PAC), funded largely by entertainment industry players like J.J. Abrams and Jeffrey Katzenberg, is already running television ads attacking Caruso for his donations. A narrator intones: "An anti-choice Republican like Rick Caruso doesn't represent LA. In a world without Roe, don't trust Rick Caruso to protect your choice."

Will the issue resonate with voters? Gonzalez isn't sure.

"I certainly do think it has the effect of driving turnout up among Democrats," he said. "But is it a kitchen table issue? Not necessarily. Does it matter for a family in Boyle Heights struggling to make ends meet? Not necessarily."

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