WASHINGTON (CN) — Juggling a reelection campaign complicates the final year of any presidency, but Joe Biden will face unique hurdles as he seeks a second term in office.
As the president returned to the White House Tuesday from his year-end trip to the U.S. Virgin Islands, his administration is tackling persistent foreign policy issues in Ukraine and Israel as voters sound increasingly sour about an electoral rematch with Donald Trump.
Foreign policy has become a defining part of Biden’s presidency, starting with his administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. It has blossomed to include Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022; the reignition of open hostilities between Israel and Hamas; relations with Venezuela; and a growing set of political and humanitarian crises in Africa.
First and foremost is the war in Ukraine, for which Biden has slowly lost support as the battlefield drags to a stalemate. Washington sent a $250 million assistance package on Dec. 27, 2023, with officials saying it was the last of all previously allocated funds.
Biden has requested an additional $61.4 billion in the coming year as part of a larger emergency spending package that includes money for Israel, Taiwan and the U.S.-Mexico border.
But the package has received an icy reception by Republicans in the House and Senate who aren’t inclined to continue funding the Ukrainian war effort and want to tie any spending package to border security policy changes.
While Biden can shift blame to Congress if Ukraine aid dries up, Trish Crouse, a professor of legal studies and political science at the University of New Haven, said securing funding will be one of his biggest focuses in the upcoming year.
“I think that’s definitely going to be a sticking point between now and the election,” she said. “He has some wiggle room in not being able to shoulder the blame for that completely.”
Meanwhile, the White House is balancing its full-throated support of Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 attacks with concerns about the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Biden’s firm stance with Israel has generated myriad protests and condemnation from progressive activists seeking better conditions for Palestinians and an end to hostilities. For example, the Council on American-Islamic Relations has criticized Biden for “ignoring the American people” by continuing to send weapons and support to Israel.
“As the list of Israeli war crimes in Gaza grows each day, the Biden administration not only turns a blind eye, but instead bypasses Congress to rush more death-dealing weapons to Israel’s far-right genocidal government,” Ibrahim Hooper, the organization’s communications director, said in a statement Tuesday. “This must stop.”
While some observers have worried Biden’s approach to Israel could create a political liability in November, Crouse said his vocal opponents aren’t likely to make a massive impact on the election.
“If they’re not happy with Biden’s approach, I don’t think they’re going to flip to Trump,” she said. “I think they’ll just sit out or vote for a third party.”
The foreign policy focus has also diverted attention from Biden’s domestic agenda and accomplishments. The president has been noticeably less visible promoting his administration’s work than his predecessors, a problem that Crouse said could cause problems for his reelection campaign.
“I just don’t think people are paying attention to what he’s done,” she said. “Biden’s just been very quiet himself. He gives speeches when he’s out, but I’m not sure he’s really out there taking credit for some of the things he’s done either.”
Crouse credited Biden with the bipartisan infrastructure law and negotiating the debt ceiling, but his lack of visibility has led to more focus on the president’s gaffes and stumbles, fueling speculation about his mental and physical capabilities to serve out a second term.
Biden, 81, has been an elected member of the federal government for all but four years since 1973, and Crouse said he’s not the same person as in his younger days. He has taken several tumbles at public events and, while he hasn't been injured in any of the falls, the White House has routinely deflected questions about his health to instead highlight his record in office.
Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term. He was already the oldest president in U.S. history when was inaugurated in 2021.
While Biden’s main political threat in the November election, former President Donald Trump, would turn 80 during his term if elected, Biden is four years older and has faced more persistent concerns about his health. Crouse feels questions about Biden’s age are legitimate for voters because while he “hasn’t done anything to endanger the country,” he does appear to have other challenges.
“I think just in general the age of 80 is too old to be president. It’s too old to be in the Senate. It’s too old to be in the House,” she said. “I think that’s a fair thing to criticize these candidates for. It’s very evident that it’s starting to impact Biden.”
Trump might be the main obstacle to a second term for Biden, but third-party candidates could cause a problem amid growing apathy at the specter of an electoral rematch.
While no third party has gained 50-state ballot access yet, No Labels, which has presented itself as a bipartisan, centrist alternative to Trump and Biden, has secured access in 12 states so far. It has been included in only one poll, with West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin receiving 3%.
Most prominent among potential outside candidates is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an attorney and anti-vaccine activist. Kennedy, who initially sought the Democratic nomination, is running a campaign as an independent, but so far has secured ballot access only in Utah.
Kennedy has more frequently appeared in three-way polls than any other candidate. In such polls between Oct. 12 and Dec. 18, 2023, Trump averages 38% of the vote, Biden receives 37% and Kennedy gets 15%.
Only one recent poll has taken a wider breadth of candidates into consideration, including Trump, Biden, Kennedy, Cornel West, a political activist mounting an independent run, former Penthouse magazine owner Lars Mapstead for the Libertarian party and Jill Stein for the Green Party.
That poll, taken between Dec. 26 and Dec. 29, has Trump at 37%, Biden at 34%, Kennedy at 10%, West and Mapstead at 2% and Stein at 1%.
The Libertarians received ballot access in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the past two presidential elections, while the Green party has not appeared in all states so far. West has only been placed on Alaska’s ballot.
In head-to-head polls, Trump has a slight edge at 44.6% to Biden’s 44.3%.
The White House did not respond to Courthouse News’ request for comment on Tuesday.
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