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Running up that Capitol Hill: Almost 30 candidates vie for California US Senate seat

While over two dozen people are running for the Senate seat previously held by Dianne Feinstein, observers say just four of them will likely rise to the top.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) — At high schools across Sacramento County in January, students voted their favorite Marvel characters into elected office.

Marge Patzer, chair of voting services for the League of Women Voters of Sacramento County, uses these mock elections as a method to teach students about the electoral process. It also serves as an opportunity for eligible students to register to vote.

That includes 18-year-olds, as well as younger students who can register before they turn voting age. “They’re really happy to pre-register,” Patzer said in a phone interview this month.

Education is a key aspect of Patzer’s work. In the weeks leading up to the March 5 primary election, she’s fielded plenty of questions from voters hoping to better understand the issues, the candidates and the voting process itself. 

When asked about California’s U.S. Senate race, Patzer points to televised forums and the Secretary of State’s Office as good sources of information. There are also voter information guides, mailed directly to voters, where people can read statements from the candidates themselves.

Among the more unusual contests on California primary ballots this year are the two races for that U.S. Senate seat. It’s the seat once occupied by Dianne Feinstein, who died in office last year after serving for more than 30 years in the Senate.

There’s only one seat up for grabs, despite there being two choices. The first is for the remainder of Feinstein’s term, which ends in January 2025. The second is for the full six-year term, which starts that same month. The seat is currently held by Democrat Laphonza Butler, who isn’t running.

“It definitely adds a layer of complexity,” Benjamin Highton, a professor and chair of the political science department at UC Davis, said of the doubled-up races.

Only seven candidates are vying to complete Feinstein’s term. And yet almost 30 candidates, including all seven of the partial-term hopefuls, are on the ballot for the full six-year term.

Highton predicts that voters will pick the same candidates in both races, with the four most competitive getting the most votes. Those are Republican and former pro baseball player Steve Garvey, as well as Democratic U.S. Representatives Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff.

“My guess is that those four are going to soak up the vast majority of the votes,” Highton said.

Lee, whose East Bay district includes Oakland and Berkeley, said in a statement that she’s running because, as a progressive, she’s always fought for working people.

"I know what it is to struggle,” Lee said. “I raised two little boys on my own while on public assistance and earning my college degree. This isn’t just working on policy issues for me, it’s what I’ve lived through.”

Down in Southern California, Porter’s district includes the relatively more conservative cities of Huntington Beach and Newport Beach. Calling herself the only elected official in the race who’s representing a swing district, Porter said in a statement that she initially ran for Congress to get government to work for “real Americans.”

“I’ve won three tough races in an ideologically diverse district by being a straight shooter with voters,” she stated, “letting them know where I stand, and showing them through my actions that I work for them, by refusing corporate PAC and lobbyist money.”

Garvey and Schiff couldn’t be reached for comment. Schiff currently represents a district in the north Los Angeles area, while this will be Garvey’s first race.

The top two vote-getters will advance to the November general election, regardless of political party. That’s because California uses a so-called “jungle primary” process in which there’s no guarantee that both the Republican and Democratic parties will send a candidate to the general election. On the March 5 primary ballot, voters will see every candidate’s name (not just those of their chosen party) and can vote for anyone.

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The three best-known Democrats could split the vote between them, as voters who lean left will see multiple names they recognize. However, there’s only one recognizable name on the Republican side — Garvey — giving him an advantage among right-leaning voters in the primary, Highton said.

The make-up of the Senate race in November will greatly affect its dynamics. Democrats hold a strong advantage in California, and a match between a Democrat and a Republican in November would almost certainly send a Democrat to the Senate.

A battle between two Democrats would be much more competitive, Highton said, as it would be more difficult for the candidates to differentiate themselves from each other.

“They’re much more similar than they are different,” Highton said of those candidates.

Californians’ voting patterns haven’t always been so blue. As recently as 30 years ago, voters would put around an equal number of Republicans and Democrats into state office, said Mark DiCamillo, director of UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies poll.

Changing demographics, including more Latino and Asian American voters, have given Democrats an edge. The last time a Republican was elected to statewide office was nearly two decades ago, when Republican movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger won his reelection bid for governor in 2006.

DiCamillo, who has polled Californians since 1978, has witnessed the changes in state voter preferences. And while Democrats currently dominate statewide office, DiCamillo stressed there are marked differences in where Democratic candidates draw their support.

“It was clear to us there would be differences,” DiCamillo said of the Democratic candidates.

He cited a January poll on the U.S. Senate race and the Israeli-Hamas conflict. Younger voters are sympathetic to Palestine and opposed to President Joe Biden, according to that polling. Voters younger than 40 also tend to favor Porter over Schiff.

Much of the support for Schiff comes from voters 65 and older — voters who also generally support how the president has dealt with the conflict in Israel. Garvey also polls better among older voters.

When voters were asked about their preference for the full-term Senate seat, Schiff prevailed with 21%, followed by Porter at 17%, Garvey at 13% and Lee with 9%. Schiff also leads in a poll for the partial term, though Porter and Garvey remain close on his heels.

For DiCamillo, the age component is an important factor to examine. He also pointed to Porter’s lead among progressives. Schiff has more support from more moderate liberals.

Lee, meanwhile, has a distinctive base, DiCamillo said, as she’s well known in the Bay Area and polls well among strong liberals. However, she’s not as well known in other constituencies — a weak point in her run for a statewide seat.

When it comes to which two candidates might ultimately face off in the November election, DiCamillo agrees with Highton about the dynamics of that race. 

Given Democrats’ statewide dominance, Schiff wants to face a Republican in the general election, DiCamillo said. If Schiff and a Republican like Garvey win the top two spots in the primary, Schiff could practically declare himself the winner for the general . 

A match-up between Schiff and Porter, on the other hand — or for that matter, any two Democrats — would surely mean a hard fight, as neither candidate in that case would have a clear advantage with voters.

That’s likely why Schiff is running ads focused on Garvey, the Republican. He’s trying to narrow the race down to the two of them as opposed to the several candidates he’ll face in March, DiCamillo said.

Again, that’s because facing off against a Republican in November gives Schiff a clear advantage. “It’s a strategic move,” DiCamillo added.

Some voters might be tempted to write off primaries as wonky and unimportant. But as California’s example shows, primary contests can be essential, with implications that reverberate in November. 

For Patzer with the League of Women Voters, what’s also essential is being informed and understanding the importance of voting.

“The primary is so important because a lot of the local decisions can be decided,” she said. “You just have to say, ‘Who do I really think is the best?’” 

Categories / Elections, Politics, Regional

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