(CN) — Although Ohio has cemented itself as a red state over the last several election cycles, voters will go to the polls next month to decide on two pieces of liberal legislation — one that seeks to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state's constitution and another that would legalize marijuana for recreational use.
If it passes, Issue 1 would establish a constitutional right to "make and carry out one's own reproductive decisions," including about abortion, fertility treatments and contraception. The constitutional amendment would also include a ban on abortions after fetal viability, a term which the measure defines as “the point in a pregnancy when, in the professional judgment of the pregnant patient's treating physician, the fetus has a significant likelihood of survival outside the uterus with reasonable measures. This is determined on a case-by-case basis.”
Over $9 million has been spent in support of the amendment by three PACs, while the Protect Women Ohio political action committee at the head of a coalition to defeat the measure has spent more than $15 million.
Some of the money opposing the measure came from the Catholic Church, with campaign finance records showing a $500,000 donation from the Archdiocese of Cincinnati in June, as well as $200,000 donations from both the Diocese of Cleveland and the Diocese of Columbus.
Issue 1 has a contentious history. Republicans have fought the measure every step of the way, including scheduling a special election in August to make it more difficult to amend Ohio's constitution.
Ohioans overwhelmingly rejected that constitutional amendment, which would have required a 60% majority for any future amendments, including the one on the ballot this November.
A simple majority now remains the only requirement for the amendment to pass.
Associate Professor David Niven from the University of Cincinnati said in a phone interview that the result in August was "very good news" for supporters of Issue 1, but he emphasized the defeat of the amendment did not guarantee success in November.
"The elections don't match up exactly," he said, "so you don't want to read too much into what happened in August, because there are some folks who saw that as an overreach having nothing to do with reproductive rights."
Conservatives and Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who recently announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2024, did succeed in changing the language of the ballot issue, a move Issue 1 supporters claim will confuse voters.
The Ohio Supreme Court ruled the phrase "unborn child" could be used instead of "fetus" in the ballot measure despite a legal challenge from Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights.
"Language is consequential," Niven told Courthouse News. "We have lots of great research on that, but it's more consequential when the issue itself is murky or hard to understand."
Niven said the language certified by LaRose's office was an attempt to muddy the waters and confuse voters, but that it likely won't be effective.
"I don't think it will work in this case, simply because this is an issue that is going to get an awful lot of attention," he said. "People know whether they believe in reproductive rights and they know before they get to the ballot."
Issue 2 would legalize marijuana for recreational use for people over the age of 21, establish a Division of Cannabis Control to regulate the industry, and impose a 10% tax on all marijuana sales.
The ballot measure is not a constitutional amendment, but rather a mandate to pass legislation that, ultimately, could be stripped of important components by a far-right leaning legislature.
"Because it is simply a proposed law, the Legislature can undermine it, and that is not at all unlikely," Niven said. "That doesn't mean repealing every word of it, but undermining its intent and effect."
Niven said most Ohioans likely consider Issue 2 a "binding action" even though passage of the measure might not result in a free and full marijuana market.
Recent statements from Republican Senate President Matt Huffman on the floor during a speech against Issue 2 are indicative of what might happen if marijuana is legalized by voters.
"This initiated statute is coming right back before this body [and] I will advocate for reviewing it and repealing things or changing things that are in it," he said.
Both Issue 1 and 2 are outliers in some respect, given Ohio's staunch conservative voting record in the past two presidential elections — which saw Trump win easily each time — but they point to a growing divide between elected representatives and the average Buckeye who put them into office.
"I think most voters fail to appreciate just how far away the Legislature is from the public opinion of the average Ohioan," Niven said. "And that's certainly what August was about, a flexing of the muscles of the average Ohioan, and I think if Issue 2 passes, it will be a good, tangible example for folks about how far away the Legislature has drifted from the values of the average Ohioan."
Despite continuing to elect Republicans to the statehouse, Niven said Ohio voters have no "real commitment" to conservative issues and pointed to a recent poll that showed 90% support for universal background checks on gun purchases.
Polls on the ballot issues for this year's election have been few and far between, with most results showing support for Issue 1 hovering just over 50%, another indicator of the importance of the August special election.
Democrats' staunch support of women's reproductive rights was revitalized in the wake of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and ballot measures like Issue 1 could be a litmus test for the 2024 election cycle.
"If Ohio votes in the direction of reproductive rights, it means basically two things," Niven said. "Number one is an absolute validation for Democrats nationally that this is a winning issue that needs to be front and center in the presidential campaign.
"The second thing is, it furthers and deepens the mystery of Ohio, because this is a state with a lot of people who have voted Democratic in their past but are not voting Democratic now, and this is a state that when given the opportunity to vote on an issue, votes in a very moderate or Democratic-friendly way."
Early voting began Oct. 10 and continues on most days until Sunday, Nov. 5, two days before Election Day.
Niven said he expects turnout will be similar to that seen in the August special election, which likely means more than half of eligible voters will stay home.
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