North American cities may see a dramatic shift in urban wildlife species due to climate change

(CN) — The wild animals that currently live alongside humans in cities across North America may be moving out as a new set of furry, scaly, slimy, feathered or chitin clad creatures move in to replace them, according to new research that examines climate scenarios and species that make-up urban wildlife.

The authors of a new study published on Tuesday in the journal PLOS One say the warming climate is likely to displace thousands of species that inhabit urban centers in the U.S. and Canada by 2100.

“Climate change is not something that is happening remotely. And species loss isn’t something that is happening in the National Park it is something that is happening in your backyard,” said lead author Alessandro Filazzola of the Centre for Urban Environments at the University of Toronto, Mississauga.

The researchers studied climate models and species sighting locations from a global biodiversity database to determine the tolerance thresholds of more than 2,000 urban species to climate-related variables such as precipitation rates and maximum and minimum temperatures.

Then, they incorporated climate projections based on three global emissions pathways to predict the impacts on the range of each of the 2,000 species in 60 cities throughout the U.S. and Canada.

The predictions indicated that all the cities studied would experience substantial changes in the composition of terrestrial urban species by the end of the century. But the transition is already occurring and is likely to be apparent within our lifetimes, according to Filazzola.

“What we're showing is that these patterns might actually happen within a few decades,” he said. “Our children would be seeing a whole new assemblage of species, and that, to them, will be normal. But for us currently living the transition, it may seem quite rapid.”

The results for individual cities varied loosely based on regional climate patterns. Overall, cities in cooler northern and central regions are expected to see more species gains and fewer losses, while cities in the Southeastern U.S. and in coastal areas of California are expected to experience the most significant losses.

Cities in the Southwest U.S. such as Las Vegas and Tucson had the lowest rates of species turnover. Authors suspect this may be a result of prior ecosystem adaptation to the region’s historically broad ranging temperature patterns.

The authors pointed out that they were not able to account for interactions between species. For example, a species may be expected to inhabit a particular urban area but if that species relies on a prey species that is no longer present, than it may not inhabit that location even if climate conditions are predicted to be suitable.

For Filazzola and the researchers involved in the study, the expected species turnover raises questions about the corresponding changes in ecosystem services provided by these creatures. In urban areas, species may offer mental health benefits or discovery and educational experiences for children and adults alike.

“I was looking at sports teams for a while,” said Filazzola, “Like, is Baltimore going to lose the oriole or is Toronto going to lose the blue jay?”

He said he found that most of these emblematic animals would still be around, but people just might not see them as often.

Pest control is another major consideration; bird species eat ticks, and bats can keep mosquito populations in check. Also, while the benefits of pollinators are most valued in agriculture, urban ecosystems also benefit from their services.

As the species shuffle progresses, conservation efforts are likely to fall on city governments and local agencies said Filazzola.

The study authors suggest that creating refugia and tree canopy that reduces urban temperatures may allow populations of certain species to remain in the protected zones.

They note that different benefits may arise from the much-debated concepts of land sparing and land sharing. The first calls for large parkland reserves surrounded by dense urban development and the latter for designs that include green corridors and refugia spread more evenly throughout cityscapes.

The authors believe these conservation strategies may shape human relationships with urban wildlife in the warmer climate of the future.

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