Melting ice causes, and helps scientists predict, strange European summers

(CN) — Freshwater in the ocean disrupts European summers, but it can also make them easier to foresee.

Scientists from the U.K.'s National Oceanography Centre found something odd about the increase of meltwater, released when snow or ice melts, in the North Atlantic: Strong freshwater releases shift weather patterns.

Melting sea ice and glacial ice change normal ocean circulation and influence global warming, according to the study published Tuesday in Weather and Climate Dynamics, the European Geosciences Union’s open access journal.

This means that while Europe is already contending with higher temperatures because of climate change, the continent will also have to deal with warming due to these shifts, the researchers said. Overall, the more ocean ice melts, the more intense European heat waves and droughts become.

However, the scientists found that by studying the freshwater patterns in the ocean that cause these changes, they can also predict how hot and dry European summers will be months, if not years, in advance.

According to the study, this means that the scientists can forecast the weather at least one winter in advance, though temperatures and rainfall depend on the location, amount and type of freshwater anomaly in the subpolar region of the North Atlantic in prior years.

Lead author Marilena Oltmanns said the team already has predictions on what some Europeans can expect for future summers based on the summer of 2023. Oltmanns is a research scientist at the oceeanography center who studies the role of the ocean in the climate system.

“While the U.K. and northern Europe experienced unusually cool and wet weather in summer 2023, Greenland experienced an unusually warm summer, leading to increased freshwater input into the North Atlantic,” said Oltmanns. “Based on the identified chain of events, we expect that the ocean-atmosphere conditions will be favorable for an unusually warm and dry summer over southern Europe this year."

She said meltwater will also affect northern countries soon.

"Depending on the pathway of the freshwater in the North Atlantic, we are also expecting a warm and dry summer in northern Europe within the next five years," she said. "We will be able to estimate the exact year of the warm and dry summer in northern Europe more closely in the winter before it occurs.”

Oltmanns emphasized that scientists and other groups can use this study when creating weather-predicting climate models and making practical decisions.

“Our findings demonstrate the importance of ocean observations, to ensure climate models capture all physical processes required to make accurate weather predictions,” said Oltmanns. “This study is a step forward for improving models, which will enable industries and stakeholders to plan ahead for specific weather conditions, such as adapting agricultural methods to be more resilient, predicting fuel usage and bracing for flooding events.”

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