INDIANAPOLIS (CN) — With millions of dollars spent and more than two dozen candidates in the running, Indiana's May 7 Republican primary for three solidly red U.S. House races will likely decide who takes a seat in Congress.
Republicans control seven of Indiana’s nine U.S. House seats, and Democrats are not seen as competitive in the majority of the districts.
“It is becoming an increasingly interesting time, in that so many elections across the country are being won and lost in the primary and the general election is almost a sideshow,” said Chad Kinsella, professor of political science at Ball State University.
Indiana’s 8th and 3rd districts have attracted big money and a slew of Republican candidates because incumbents aren't returning. In the 5th Congressional District, incumbent Victoria Spartz sat out for almost a year before deciding to run again.
Open congressional seats in solidly partisan districts, such as these three in Indiana, are often seen as golden opportunities to grab a seat in Congress.
“When incumbents decide not to run, it is usually this one, brief opportunity for interested parties to win the seat and, once the seat is secured, it can be held until they decide to bow out, especially with little threat of losing in the general,” Kinsella said. “Hence you have so many people decide to run in the primary — it is their one shot.”
Indiana’s 5th District is a unique case because, before Spartz’s change of heart, the seat was considered open.
Nine Republicans are vying for the nomination for the district, which encompasses some of the northern suburbs of Indianapolis and includes Madison, Delaware, Grant and Tipton counties.
Despite the wide field, Chuck Goodrich, an Indiana businessman and owner of Gaylor Electric, has emerged as Spartz’s main competitor.
“Both Spartz and Goodrich are both high-quality and competitive candidates. But Spartz's self-inflicted challenge in this race was announcing and then later reneging on her retirement,” said Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis. “For almost an entire year before the filing deadline, this looked like an open seat, which we know will attract many competitors and more money and interest in the race.”
According to FEC data, Goodrich leads the pack in fundraising with $3.4 million, but despite the edge in funds, even the most favorable of the campaign polls show Spartz leading by 3 percentage points. Her advantage has dropped considerably over the last few months, however.
“Spartz's decision to ultimately run again cuts into some of the typical benefits of incumbency advantage, but she seems to have maintained strong ties and good relationships within her district, and she has the most name recognition and the only congressional experience of the pack, so she is still a lead candidate in the race,” Wilson said.
Eight Republicans are vying for the seat in the southwestern 8th District, which saw an influx of outside money after U.S. Representative Larry Bucshon announced his retirement.
Former U.S. Representative John Hostettler, who held the seat from 1995 to 2007, is running again, but his return has been hampered by the Republican Jewish Coalition's $1 million ad buy to defeat him.
“We are deeply troubled by John Hostettler's past record and RJC is committed to ensuring he does not get back to Congress," the coalition wrote in a news release. "Hostettler has consistently opposed vital aid to Israel, trafficked antisemitic conspiracy theories, and voted against a 2000 resolution which supported Israel and condemned Palestinian leadership over the violence of the second Intifada.”
The group ran an ad endorsing another challenger in the race, Indiana State Senator Mark Messmer.
Messmer, who has raised $214,000 according to FEC records, lists his anti-abortion record and support of Israel as top issues on his campaign website.
“It is a pretty unique situation for an outside group to do such a large ad buy in a primary,” Kinsella said.
While voters often see congressional experience as a positive, Wilson said Hostetter is an example of how the past can potentially hurt a candidate.
“Hostettler is in an interesting place in this race too, because he is the only candidate who has previously served in Congress, meaning he has a record, and in this case, it is one that the RJC does not like and does not want to see repeated,” said Wilson. “It is one of the ways that actually having experience can be a liability, in comparison to other candidates who have no record and thus did not vote in favor or opposition of a resolution.”
Eight Republicans are running in the primary for the northeastern 3rd District after U.S. Representative Jim Banks announced a Senate campaign to replace the outgoing Mike Braun, who is in turn running for governor.
“It is highly unlikely that a Democrat can win this seat, even in the best case scenario for them; therefore the Republican primary is the critical threshold,” said Kineslla.
Four candidates in the race have each spent more than $400,000, with Tim Smith, who leads a Christian nonprofit, leading the pack with $785,000.
Rounding out the presumed front-runners are former Allen County Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis, Indiana Republican State Senator Andy Zay and former U.S. Representative Marlin Stutzman.
Stutzman represented the district from 2010-2017, before leaving to launch an unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate.
The outgoing Banks announced his retirement in January 2024, leaving more than a year for campaigning.
“The more advance notice given to prospective candidates will advantage prospective candidates who might not want to challenge an incumbent congressional representative, but would otherwise be interested in the seat if it were vacant,” Wilson said.
In the last stretch of campaigning, the difference could come down to how well-known the candidates are.
“I think we see the benefits of money and name recognition play a large role," Wilson said. "Supporters want to fund a candidate they know and trust and also know will win. And voters, when pressed to declare a preference of candidates with limited information, can rely on name recognition to help aid their decision-making process.”
In-person early voting started April 9.
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