(CN) — Tensions over the sovereignty of Gibraltar are on the rise this week, following the recent announcement of a high-stakes snap general election in Spain that has thrown the outcome of delicate post-Brexit negotiations into doubt.
British Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden reaffirmed the U.K. commitment to Gibraltarians' “right to determine their own future” in Parliament on Wednesday, following a renewed manifesto pledge to “decolonization” of the territory by the Spanish right, who are poised to secure a narrow victory in the upcoming poll.
The British overseas territory, located on the southernmost tip of Spain, has long been a point of contention between the two countries. Spain claims sovereignty over the territory known as "The Rock" — a position held most strongly amongst right-wingers — though residents of Gibraltar defend their British status fiercely. But while the dispute between Britain and Spain was locked in an uneasy truce before 2016, the U.K. decision to leave the European Union has thrown the debate over Gibraltarian sovereignty wide open.
While the rest of the U.K. left the bloc in January 2020, the exit treaty did not cover Gibraltar, meaning the territory remains in a transitional state of limbo, with negotiations over the future relationship ongoing.
In the 2016 referendum, 96% of Gibraltarians voted to remain in the European Union — by far the highest pro-EU vote of any polled location. The almost unanimous result reflects the overwhelming importance EU membership held for the viability of the territory. More than 14,000 workers freely cross the border from Spain to Gibraltar daily, taking advantage of the higher wages relative to the low-income Spanish region of Andalusia.
Gibraltar’s economy in its densely populated town of 32,000 is dependent on the free movement of these workers to function. The prospect of time-consuming border checks if negotiations fail is a devastating but real possibility and could make Gibraltar's continued British status largely unviable.
There is historical precedent to such a situation. The border with Spain was previously closed outright between 1969 and 1985 under the orders of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco — a period which still casts a dark shadow in the memories of many Gibraltarians, but also strengthens their determination to prevent regression on border movement. Reopening the border came as a condition of Spanish entry into the European community, meaning free movement across the border was not agreed upon on a bilateral basis — instead merely as a consequence of common European membership.
Negotiations with the Spanish left-wing coalition government led by Prime Minster Pedro Sanchez on a long-term settlement had been progressing, with both sides cautiously indicating that an end was in sight. But Sanchez’s sudden decision to call a general election has upended the talks — the conclusion of which now depend entirely on the poll’s outcome.
The issue of sovereignty and national unity has become highly polarizing in Spanish politics following years of growing separatist agitation in many of the country's semi-autonomous peripheries.
The Spanish left — reliant on the support of separatist parties for their parliamentary majority — favor an ameliorative approach to the issue of national unity. The Sanchez administration has taken some political heat for decisions to release Catalan political prisoners, promote reconciliation in the Basque region and seek to resolve the dispute over Gibraltar amicably.
By contrast, the right-wing People’s Party has boosted its electoral fortunes by taking a hardline view on Spanish unity, labeling separatists as treasonous and advocating custodial punishments. Born out of the ashes of the Franco regime, Spain’s main conservative party has long rejected Gibraltar's British status, with former Foreign Minister Josep Borrell describing Brexit as a “golden opportunity” to reclaim the territory.
The People's Party will almost certainly require the support of the ultra-nationalist Vox party to govern — presenting an even greater obstacle to negotiations. Vox has campaigned to shut down Spain’s regional governance system in favor of centralization in Madrid and has described government negotiations with the U.K. over Gibraltar as a “betrayal,” instead arguing that the territory should be “suffocated into submission.” Vox is pushing to emulate the Franco strategy and close the border once again.
Current polling suggests that a People's Party-Vox coalition is the most likely outcome of the election, though the numbers are tightening with just under three weeks of campaigning still to go. The hope amongst Gibraltarians is that the bellicose language is more electoral rhetoric than policy commitment.
Gibraltar’s Chief Minister Fabian Picardo says he is ready for further complications in the negotiations but pours scorn on any discussion of sovereignty. Speaking to the Financial Times last week, Picardo was forthright.
“If anybody in any political party on the left, the right or the center in Spain thinks that they’re going to subject the people of Gibraltar to any concession or compromise on sovereignty whilst I am chief minister, they’ve got another thing coming,” Picardo said.
All sides agree that the current arrangement is unsustainable. The Spanish government had been working on a series of proposals dubbed the "zone of shared prosperity," in which Spain takes control of external border operations, enabling the removal of the internal border and permitting the free movement of people and goods.
It is a stark contrast to the approach touted by the other side. It's also unclear, having ramped up the rhetoric, that an incoming right-wing coalition would be able or willing to countenance cross-border cooperation.
Spanish voters will go to the polls on July 23.
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