ATLANTA (CN) — After emerging as one of the nation’s most pivotal battleground states four years ago, Georgia has captured presidential candidates' attention as its primary election on March 12 approaches.
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have dominated the running for their respective parties' nominations so far, setting the stage for a rematch of the nation's last presidential election.
But this time around, instead of battling the global Covid-19 pandemic, the nation's voters are more concerned with high costs of inflation; immigration and border control issues; and reproductive health in the aftermath of Roe v. Wade's constitutional abortion protections being overturned.
First Lady Jill Biden set out to Georgia on Friday to mobilize women voters behind Biden’s bid for a second term and his support for abortion rights. Her efforts follow reports last month of Trump privately discussing his support of a national ban on abortion after 16 weeks of pregnancy — though his campaign denied the report and said the former president plans to “negotiate a deal” on abortion if elected to the White House again.
The anticipated rematch between the 77-year-old Trump and 81-year-old Biden also stands out as a race between two of the oldest candidates ever to run for president.
Georgia State University professor Robert Howard noted the shift, pointing to former President Ronald Reagan's age when he ran for office. "Everyone thought Reagan was old at 69," said Howard, who is also the executive director of the Southern Political Science Association.
Reagan was 77 years old when his term ended.
Given Georgia's long history of being reliably Republican, Biden’s democratic victory in 2020 signaled a sea change in the state's voting demographics. It marked the narrowest margin of victory in the entire country that year, with Biden beating Trump by just 0.2%.
The state has since become increasingly politically polarized: Democrat-leaning voters have emerged from Atlanta and surrounding urban areas while Republican support has grown more staunch in rural parts of Georgia.
“Georgia is unique in its status as a 'swing state' with both Republican and Democratic campaigns looking to win Georgia in November," said Kimberly Tecklenburg, a political science professor at Georgia Southern University. "The primary election is a chance for the campaigns to see how strong their candidate is with Georgia voters and to determine if there are any weaknesses in the electorate.”
For Trump, Tecklenburg said, that means focusing on the voters he didn't capture in 2020.
“Georgia has a larger number of Black voters than states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and even Michigan. In 2020, Donald Trump only won 11% of the black vote in Georgia," Tecklenburg said. "He’ll be looking to see if he can move the needle in his direction this time around.”
Georgia has become a vocal point of Trump’s new campaign, after he falsely claimed to have won the state following the 2020 election and now faces criminal charges for attempting to overturn his defeat.
The latest polls show Trump leading Biden with an average of 49% support compared to Biden’s 42%.
Many Republican officials, including Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, dismissed Trump's claims of election fraud, creating a rift in the state GOP that could fuel votes for Trump’s only Republican rival still in the race, Nikki Haley.
Though Haley won about 27% of votes in the Michigan primary, it wasn't nearly enough to top Trump’s 68%, nor his victories in all four of the other early state contests. She was defeated by Trump in even South Carolina, where she previously served as governor.
Haley's posture and willingness to stay in the race suggests she won't endorse Trump, nor release her delegates, said associate professor of political science at Emory University Andra Gillespie.
"It will be hard for her to amass delegates," Gillespie said.
She added that part of Haley's angle could be to gain support as an alternate if Trump drops from the race for whatever reason.
Although they have all withdrawn from the race, Ryan Binkley, Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Asa Hutchinson, Perry Johnson, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott and David Stuckenberg remain on Georgia's Republican ballot.
Meanwhile Biden is up against two other Democratic candidates: Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips and bestselling self-help author and perennial Democratic candidate Marianne Wilson.
While Phillips and Wilson haven’t garnered enough votes to pose a significant threat to Biden’s lead so far, the current president still needs to gain at least 1,968 delegates to come out as the official Democratic nominee. He lost 13% of the vote from Michigan Democrats who voted "uncommitted" as part of a protest vote over Biden’s support for Israel's war in Gaza.
As a result, the uncommitted voters won two delegates and will have a voice — even if a relatively small one — at the Democratic Party's national convention in August, where Biden supporters will seek to rally the party against Trump.
However, "uncommitted" will not be an option on Georgia’s Democratic ballot.
New challenges
Even though a Trump-Biden rematch is expected, the candidates each face new challenges in their candidacies, said political science professor at the University of Georgia Trey Hood.
He noted that Biden is now being judged by voters based on his current term as president, while Trump is saddled with criminal charges in four ongoing cases and the scar of his supporters' deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Georgia’s election could be the one to secure Trump’s official win as the Republican nominee, if he is able to reach the 1,215 delegates needed.
Before the primary, 36% of GOP delegates, 874 total, will be awarded on Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states and territories will hold their primaries. The biggest hauls will come from California with 169 delegates and Texas with 161.
Trump campaign officials have estimated he will reach enough delegates by March 19, when Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio hold their primaries.
Biden, who is facing a less competitive process for the Democratic Party's nomination, ended January with about $56 million in his campaign, up from $46 million in December, according to a disclosure to the Federal Election Commission.
The fundraising disadvantage for Trump has been magnified by a significant drain of his campaign and PAC funds diverted to legal expenses for his multiple civil and criminal trials, which are expected to climb this year.
Two political action committees now dedicated largely to paying Trump’s legal bills, Save America leadership PAC and Make America Great Again PAC, spent over $55 million on legal bills in 2023. Save America spent about $3 million on legal bills just in the first month of 2024.
However, the first president to face criminal charges was able to profit some from his high-profile surrender at the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta on Aug. 24, 2023. The following day, Trump raised $4.18 million, making it the single highest-earning 24-hour period of his campaign to date, powered by merchandise sold on his campaign's online store featuring his scowling mugshot.
Early voting is currently underway for at least 17 days over three weeks across Georgia, including on two Saturdays, plus Sundays in some counties. Voters can find early voting locations, voting hours, sample ballots and registration information on Georgia’s My Voter Page. Early voting locations are often different from Election Day precincts.
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