(CN) — After a record-setting hurricane season last year and even with sea surface temperatures not expected to be as warm this year, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is already off to a record-setting start with few signs of slowing down, experts warned Wednesday.
According to the mid-season update issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the latest hurricane season outlook shows that 15 to 20 named storms are expected to form, including seven to 10 full-blown hurricanes. Of those, three to five could become major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher with winds of 111 mph or greater.
Those numbers include the five named storms that already formed this year, with July’s Hurricane Elsa becoming the earliest-forming fifth named storm on record. The first storm this year, Ana, formed in late May, over a week before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.
How many storms will make landfall, however, is unclear as landfalls are typically only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline, experts noted.
“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.
While Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not expected to be as warm as they were last year — which saw a record-breaking 30 named storms — reduced vertical wind shear and an enhanced west Africa monsoon all contribute to the current conditions that can increase seasonal hurricane activity, experts say.
Those conditions are set against the backdrop of the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since 1995.
“Now is the time for families and communities to ensure their preparations are in place,” National Weather Service Director Louis W. Uccellini said in a statement. “These storms can be devastating, so be prepared for all possible outcomes by staying tuned to the forecast and following safety information and possible evacuation notifications issued by emergency officials.”
Last year, initial storm predictions were blown out of the water when NOAA forecasters updated their predictions to include 25 named storms, five short of the final number.
It was the second time in history that the Greek alphabet was used when the 21-name Atlantic storm list was exhausted.
Louisiana bore the brunt of the 2020 hurricane season in the United States. Hurricane Laura reached Lake Charles with 150 mph winds on Aug. 27, submerging much of the west Louisiana city and sparking a chemical fire nearby.
The city is still reeling from the devastation, the New York Times reported recently. Millions of dollars in federal emergency funds to help with immediate needs after the storms has been nowhere near enough.
Some research suggests the uptick in major Atlantic hurricanes may reflect a rebound after a dip in tropical activity between the 1960s and 80s rather than a large-scale increase in frequency.
However, that doesn’t mean that climate change is not affecting the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, which are expected to become more intense as sea surface temperatures increase.
A study of North Atlantic hurricanes over a 50-year period showed that the warming ocean has supercharged hurricanes, leading to more destructive, longer-lasting storms even after they reach land.
Storms can gather more moisture from warmer seas, providing more fuel for their fire, so to speak. Hurricanes that have stocked more moisture not only release that extra wetness as rainfall once they’ve hit land, they also last longer, dissipating more slowly upon landfall.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
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