PORTLAND, Ore. (CN) — In the race for congressional domination this year, Democrats are watching two Oregon primaries on May 21 that could make or break the GOP hold over the U.S. House of Representatives in November.
“You always have competitive primaries, particularly when you have open seats,” said Christopher Stout, an associate professor of political science at Oregon State University. “But it's really interesting that some of the most competitive races in the country are happening here in Oregon.”
One of the state’s most-watched primaries has centered on five Democrats vying to replace retiring U.S. Representative Earl Blumenauer for Oregon’s 3rd Congressional District after his 27-year service to the predominantly blue district. The three frontrunners are state representative Maxine Dexter, former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal and Gresham city councilor Eddy Morales.
In another Democratic primary, state representative Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner are squaring off to challenge first-term Republican U.S. Representative Lori Chavez-DeRemer for a spot in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District in November.
“There might be history made in any of those races,” Stout said. “If someone like Eddy Morales won, you'd have the first Latino and first person from the LGBTQ+ community in office. If Bynum wins in that 5th District, you'd have the first Black member of Congress representing the state or in the state's delegation. I think those are important.”
But for Democrats to secure a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, experts agree that the party’s primary for Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, a stretch extending from just south of Portland to parts of Bend, is the most pivotal and competitive.
“I think the edge for Jamie McLeod-Skinner is that the district knows her,” said Jim Moore, an associate professor of international and state politics at Pacific University. “She has been their nominee before. Then she also brings in real progressive types, which is how she won the primary two years ago, and then it's blamed for why she lost the election in the fall.”
Bynum’s advantage is more nuanced, Moore said, explaining how Bynum has twice beat Chavez-DeRemer in previous races and gathered the entire Democratic establishment of the state behind her, including Oregon Governor Tina Kotek and Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum.
The three frontrunners for Oregon’s 3rd Congressional District, which encompasses most of Portland, have shared priorities around affordable housing, accessible health care, addressing climate change and supporting political transparency with campaign finance reform.
On May 2, however, Jayapal and Morales accused Dexter of benefiting from a $1.66 million advertisement campaign from the 314 Action Fund and demanded that the super PAC reveal its donors who contributed money after its latest disclosure deadline in late March.
“Maxine Dexter claims to be for transparency in politics, but she and 314 Action are engaged in a dishonest and cynical ploy to obscure the donors propping up her campaign until just one day before the primary,” the candidates said in a joint statement. “At a time when MAGA Republican mega-donors are interfering in Democratic primaries across the country, particularly against qualified candidates of color, voters deserve to know who is trying to buy this seat for a centrist candidate who doesn’t even live in the district.”
As reported by local media outlets, neither Jayapal nor Morales have provided any evidence that the 314 Action Fund — which helps elect Democrats with scientific backgrounds — is funded by or affiliated with far-right Republicans.
The next day, reports surfaced indicating the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has been washing money through 314 Action Fund to target Jayapal over her suspected pro-Palestinian stance. Jayapal’s sister, U.S. Representative Pramila Jayapal, chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus and called for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war last October.
On top of the 314 Action Fund’s advertising for Dexter, it came to light that a new super PAC called “Voters for Responsive Government” had sponsored an additional $1 million worth of smear ads against Jayapal.
“When I entered this race, I met with both of my opponents and told them I would run a positive campaign and that remains true,” Dexter said in a social media statement on May 3. “A dark money group has recently attacked my opponent and I want to be clear, I don’t think a negative discourse has any place in this race. I do not condone or support these negative ads in any way and remain committed to a positive conversation.”
Dexter added how the new dark money group is a prime example of how broken the U.S. campaign finance system is and promised to pass legislation for campaign finance reform.
But the other underlying issue begs the question of whether the Biden administration's involvement with Israel's war will have any effect on voter turnout in an election year earmarked by national student protests and an uncompetitive presidential primary.
“I wouldn't expect it to be lower than before,” Stout said. “I guess another point to make about that is that we have seen an increase in protests and increases in protests generally are correlated with higher levels of turn up because those people are active.”
Other Oregon residents, however, are using the Democratic primary as a protest vote.
“We're encouraging people to vote ‘uncommitted,’” said Maxine Fookson, a Jewish activist, retired nurse practitioner and organizer affiliated with the Uncommitted Oregon campaign.
The purpose of the “uncommitted” movement, Fookson explained, is to remind the Biden administration that it needs to earn its voters and change course over the U.S. role in supplying weapons to Israel.
“The polls are all showing in increasing numbers, people want a ceasefire,” Fookson said. “People don't want our money going into weapons for Israel, our tax dollars, when those weapons are being used against international law and to violate human rights, to kill children, to kill civilians, to bomb hospitals and kill doctors and nurses. We don't want our weapons used that way.”
Fookson said she supports Jayapal for her stances on climate justice, reproductive rights and other topics she thinks liberal, progressive Democrats care about.
On the other side of the aisle, the Republican primary for Oregon’s 6th Congressional District could result in a competitive GOP candidate, and experts are betting that Republican Mike Erickson will appear on the November ballot.
Yet, Erickson’s previous loss to an incumbent Democrat, U.S. Representative Andrea Salinas, could hurt his chances of securing the final district vote, Stout explained.
“I think that'll be difficult because now it's already a Democratic-leaning district. And now Salinas is an incumbent, so I think he has a harder road than he did in 2022,” Stout said, adding that 2024 will probably be better for Democrats nationally than in 2022.
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