BUENOS AIRES (CN) — As Argentina readies to elect its next leader in the decisive final round of voting Sunday, polls show the race for the presidential Casa Rosada is neck and neck.
With skyrocketing inflation and a looming recession weighing heavily on their shoulders, voters will choose between two remaining candidates: Economy Minister Sergio Massa, the ruling center-left party’s candidate, and Javier Milei, a libertarian outsider who wants to dollarize Argentina’s economy.
The primary consensus from public opinion polls is that the election will be competitive, though in recent days Milei has pulled slightly ahead of Massa.
“The biggest question mark is the portion of the electorate that will cast a blank ballot — in other words, people who don’t like either candidate,” said Ezequiel González Ocantos, a political science professor at the University of Oxford. “How big is that portion of the electorate? I think that will, in many ways, hold the keys to the result.”
Milei, an economist who made a name for himself by bringing his eccentric demeanor and radical proposals to Argentine television programs, emerged as the race’s frontrunner in a shocking August primary upset. But after over two months of campaigning, it was Massa who took home the most votes in the first round of voting last month. That marked the first time since primaries were established over a decade ago that the party that won the primary did not hold onto its lead in the general election’s first round.
Massa won 36.8% of the vote in the first round Oct. 22, followed by Milei at 30%. Neither candidate cleared the 45% vote threshold, or 40% with a margin of victory of at least 10%, needed to win the presidency outright.
Patricia Bullrich, a tough-on-crime political veteran who belongs to Argentina’s center-right coalition, was eliminated from the race after coming in third with 23.8% of the vote. The two remaining candidates have spent much of the last month trying to win over the 6.2 million Argentines who voted for her—as well as over 3 million voters who cast their first round ballots for less popular candidates, or for no candidate at all.
“Over 9 million votes are in play, votes that belong to people who supported the three candidates who were eliminated in the first round, or who submitted a blank ballot,” said Carolina Tchintian, a political science professor at the University of Buenos Aires. “That’s a lot of votes, and their reconfiguration creates a lot of uncertainty regarding what will happen in the runoff.”
Milei has gone after Bullrich voters with the former candidate’s blessing. Just three days after she was eliminated from the race, Bullrich endorsed the ultraconservative economist, despite a heated history between them. Bullrich sued Milei for defamation after he accused her of “planting bombs in kindergartens” during her time as a teenage member of the left-wing Montoneros guerrilla group.
“With Javier Milei, we have our differences, and that’s why we competed,” Bullrich said at a news conference following the election. “However, we are faced with the dilemma of change or the continuation of a mafia-like governance for Argentina, and putting an end to the embarrassment of the present.”
Asked about their history of conflict, Bullrich said that she had “forgiven” the candidate and was dropping legal charges.
Bullrich’s characterization of Argentina’s current government echoes the sentiments of Milei and his supporters. Milei has described Argentina’s current Peronist government, led by President Alberto Fernández, as a “parasitic, corrupt and useless political caste.” The Peronist movement has been voted into the Casa Rosada for 16 of the past 20 years.
