(CN) — Ohioans will take to the polls in August amid a sea of controversy to decide whether it should be more difficult to change the state's constitution, marking an unusual election that experts say is tied to Republican efforts to thwart a pro-abortion initiative expected to hit the ballot in November.
State Issue 1, if passed, will amend the Ohio Constitution to require any future amendments to be passed with a 60% majority of statewide voters. Under the current scheme, amendments require only a simple majority: 50% of the vote plus one.
Signature requirements for groups aiming to get amendment initiatives placed on the ballot would change, too, increasing from 5% of the registered voters in 44 counties to 5% of the voters in all of Ohio's 88 counties.
Officially titled "Elevating the Standards to Qualify for and to Pass any Constitutional Amendment," the amendment was rewritten in part after a decision last month by the Ohio Supreme Court.
The state's high court told lawmakers to correct inaccuracies regarding the number of signatures required to place initiatives on the ballot, but did not make substantive changes to language Democratic opponents have called misleading and confusing.
David Niven, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati, expressed concern about the "incomplete" language in the ballot measure when he spoke with Courthouse News.
"Voters are going to be very dependent on the information they bring with them to the polling place," he said, "rather than from the language when they're looking at the ballot."
More concerning than the language on the ballot was the relatively small number of Ohioans who are aware the election is taking place at all.
"I would say the overwhelming majority of Ohioans don't know this is happening," Niven said, "and then a good chunk of those that do know don't necessarily know all the details. This is an election for the hardcore, never-miss-a-vote-types."
As a result, turnout is expected to be relatively low, which favors Republicans who want the amendment to pass.
An August election held last year saw just 8% of the electorate turn out to vote. Niven said he expects higher turnout this year, possibly between 20 and 30% — still a staggeringly low number for such a consequential vote.
"A tiny minority of Ohioans will be in a position to enshrine permanent minority control of the constitution," Niven said.
"This is a just a really, really heavy lift," Niven continued. "It's literally the only thing on the ballot, it's an August election. You have to correct for everybody's basic voting impulse, which is that we vote in November, we don't vote in August of odd-numbered years."
That an August election is even taking place is a surprise, since the Ohio legislature outlawed them earlier this year because of concerns over excessive costs and low turnout. It took a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court — divided along party lines — to allow the election to be scheduled in the wake of the legislation, as the court determined language in the constitution took precedence over the new law.
Advocates of Issue 1 have marketed it as a way to protect the sanctity of the Ohio Constitution from outside influencers, but it's no coincidence the election was scheduled for August in the same year a pro-abortion amendment will likely appear on the November ballot.
"The bottom line is, [Republicans] had to get this election in before the reproductive rights question made the ballot," Niven said. "It's entirely about abortion rights."
Niven cited several lawmakers, including Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who have told supporters Issue 1 is being used by conservative lawmakers to keep the right to an abortion out of the state's constitution.
Supporters of that potential amendment, titled the "Right to Make Reproductive Decisions, Including Abortion," submitted more than 700,000 signatures to LaRose's office last week, and will find out in the coming weeks whether enough have been certified to place the issue on the November ballot.
If it passes, Issue 1 could also be used by Republicans to prevent minimum wage increases, according to critics, but Niven emphasized its primary goal is defeating the abortion amendment.
"The point of this is to try to prevent a majority of Ohioans from being heard on abortion," he said.
Issue 1 is shaping up to be a quintessential example of lawmaking in a state governed almost exclusively by one party.
Republicans hold the governor's seat, have supermajorities in both the house and senate, and also have a majority in the state's high court, all of which have been used for leverage in the special election.
This leverage may be necessary, according to Niven, because a majority of Ohioans don't see eye-to-eye with their politicians.
"The key thing is it's a supermajority that's out of step with the values of the average Ohioan," he said. "If their values matched the average Ohioan, all of this would be unnecessary. They wouldn't be fearful of a reproductive rights ballot question. ... All of this chicanery is about trying to prevent the majority [of Ohioans] from pulling the legislature back toward the middle."
Down the line, it's not hard to envision scenarios in which the passage of Issue 1 hurts Republicans in future elections just as much as it may help them in the 2023 cycle.
"There is a huge backfire potential," Niven said. "They have to live in fear of what [happens] if the reproductive rights amendment passes with 60% of the vote and now they're looking at the prospect of having no capacity to get it out [of the constitution]."
Early voting for Issue 1 began Tuesday. The last day for Ohioans to request absentee ballots is August 1.
Courthouse News will have coverage of the special election on August 8.
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