Biden clings to support among voters under 30: Harvard Youth poll

(CN) — President Joe Biden has a smaller lead among young Americans than he did four years ago — but former President Donald Trump's criminal cases could help to widen the gap.

According to the 2024 Harvard Youth poll, released Thursday, Biden leads Trump by eight percentage points among voters under 30. By comparison, in the same poll Biden led Trump by 23 points at this stage in the 2020 election.

Like in 2020, more than half of the 2,010 Americans between 18 and 29 years old who answered the March survey say they plan to vote in the presidential election.

“As the Biden and Trump rematch takes shape, we see strong levels of engagement and interest in voting among young Americans,” John Della Volpe, polling director of the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, said in a statement.

Biden’s lead is strongest among women and non-white voters, according to the poll; he leads men under 30 by six points, while he leads by 33 points among young women. He also leads by 40 more points among non-white voters. 

For Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, young women may be more strongly motivated to vote for Biden because of Trump’s anti-abortion stance.

“The chaos in many states regarding abortion and the fear that there may be a national ban if Trump becomes president again is a key issue that motivates women to turn away from Trump and other Republican candidates,” Farnsworth said. “Even Republicans are starting to see the issue as a political loser for the GOP and are trying to minimize the damage.”

The poll also shows that Trump voters are more full-throated in their support: Three-quarters of them say they enthusiastically support their candidate. Less than half of Biden supporters say the same.

But support for Trump could change depending on the outcome of his various pending criminal trials.

Jury selection in Trump’s hush-money trial began this week and three other criminal probes are still pending. If the former president is found guilty in any of these cases, the poll estimates Biden’s lead among all young Americans could increase between eight and 18 points.

But there are still areas of concern for Biden when rallying the younger vote, Farnsworth said. For instance, voters under 30 are particularly concerned about the preisdent's foreign policies.

“Many young voters are unhappy with President Biden’s policies regarding Gaza, which was not a nationally prominent issue four years ago,” Farnsworth said. “If this is an issue that continues to be a focus in November, those most concerned about Gaza may choose neither candidate.”

Young Americans support a permanent cease-fire in Gaza by a five-to-one margin, the poll found.

Biden's age is a growing concern, too.

“Biden’s age is a liability with younger voters this year as it was four years ago," Farnsworth said. "Young people say they are ready for younger leaders than Biden and Trump."

More than half of young Americans believe the U.S. is “off on the wrong track,” the poll says. Economy also ranks as young voters’ chief concern, with more than a quarter of young voters rating it as their biggest concern. Immigration and foreign policy follow behind as the next biggest concern.

More than a quarter of voters under 30 say they are most concerned about the economy, with immigration and foreign policy following behind.

“Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things,” John Della Volpe said. “Economic issues are top of mind, housing is a major concern — and the gap between young men’s and young women’s political preferences is pronounced.”

Follow @NikaSchoonover

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