RICHMOND, Va. (CN) — Hot-button national issues and redistricting are turning the nation's eyes on Virginia, with all 140 of the state's General Assembly seats up for grabs in November.
"It's the only game in town," said Rich Meagher, professor of political science at Randolph-Macon College, in an interview. "People pay attention to Virginia because it feels like it's winnable for both sides."
After a Democratic trifecta in 2020, Republicans gained control of the House of Delegates, the lower body of the legislature, and Republican Glenn Youngkin beat the incumbent governor, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, in the 2021 elections.
Democrats have controlled the Senate since 2020 and acted as a brick wall stopping Republican-backed legislation from reaching Youngkin's desk.
Following Virginia's nonpartisan redistricting process that pits incumbents against incumbents in some districts and moves others to unfriendly territory, 28 lawmakers announced their retirement after last spring's session. Redistricting created competitive districts in the suburbs of Richmond, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.
"It will reshape the power structures in the General Assembly," Meagher said. "For the next decades, there is going to be a whole new set of leaders."
Over 300,000 Virginians have already cast their ballots. Meagher said as Virginia's elections become more nationalized, voters who might have skipped an off-year election in the past are heading to the polls.
Nationally watched issues are playing a big part in many races.
New Senate District 16, encompassing parts of suburban Richmond's Henrico County, is contested between incumbent Republican Senator Siobhan Dunnavant and Democratic Delegate Schuyler VanValkenburg.
"This is a very purple district," Meagher said. "It is a battleground race that has become one of the major fronts between the two parties."
Most of the new House District 97 in Virginia Beach voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 but opted to support Youngkin in 2021. A young Democratic challenger, Michael Feggans, 40, is taking on GOP incumbent Delegate Karen Greenhalgh, with each pulling in more than $1.8 million in donations.
Their campaigns have taken on overtones of national politics. While Greenhalgh has campaigned on lowering the cost of living for Virginians, an approach that Youngkin has prioritized during his first two years in office, Feggans, like many Democrats, has rallied support for protecting abortion access.
Democrats have forced Republicans to take a stance on abortion after calling them out for supporting a ban in the more competitive races.
"After Roe v. Wade was overturned, you saw Republicans trying to deemphasize this issue," said Jared McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington. "In Virginia, Republicans realized they can't avoid this issue."
Republicans like Dunnavant have worked to change the narrative: Rather than being the party that wants to outlaw abortion, they have what they claim is a common-sense position.
"That strategy has been, 'We have a very moderate position,'" McDonald said. "'This 15-week ban is not extreme. It is more or less consensus,' and that it's actually the Democrats who are extreme in wanting to have no limitations on abortion whatsoever," McDonald said.
Leslie Caughell, a political science professor at Virginia Wesleyan University specializing in women voters and candidates, said abortion restrictions will provide a catalyst for voters.
"We can expect to see more women voting," Caughell said, "in part because a lot of national money from outside of Virginia is coming into these races, and a lot of that money is coming under the understanding that abortion is on the ballot."
Caughell said that since Virginia is the only remaining Southern state not to impose new restrictions on abortion, it is garnering out-of-state donations.
"We are kind of a bastion here if you are an abortion rights advocate in this region," Caughell said. "I think that brings so much more money into these races, and it's making abortion an issue that candidates have to address."
A poll from Christopher Newport University found that only 24 percent of likely voters supported abortion restrictions.
Another hot-button national topic, parents' rights is a crucial issue that helped drive suburban voters to swing Republican in 2021. Youngkin advocates for parents to have more say in their children's education, whether that means knowing the contents of school libraries, reassessing the history curriculum or making schools more transparent when children discuss their gender identity.
"Republicans are still hitting that," Meagher said. "If we didn't have Dobbs, it probably would be, like in 2021, the signature issue of this year."
Democrats, meanwhile, have been hitting on book bans as a way for Republicans to take away voters' rights.
Meagher laid out Democrats' message to voters: "'This is what Republicans want from you; they want to take away your rights, they want to limit knowledge and freedom under the guise of parental rights.'"
Meanwhile, the governor is using his pocketbook to try and bolster his reputation as a party leader, according to Meagher. Youngkin's PAC, Spirit of Virginia, has shelled out over $12 million to Republican candidates in 2023.
"Not all governors do this, not all presidents do this. He really sees himself as a party leader," Meagher said.
Democrats' control of the Senate over the last two sessions has complicated Youngkin's time in office. After extensive negotiations, he signed a much-delayed budget that both parties chalked up as a win for their side. The agreement provided one-time state tax rebates to Virginians, increased the standard deduction and issued raises for teachers and state employees.
Youngkin hopes a Republican trifecta can deliver the type of legislation he campaigned on. Youngkin has flirted with national ambitions since he came to Richmond, but Caughell said a decisive Democratic victory this November could turn Republican donors off of his approach.
"If Youngkin loses the house he has, it doesn't bode well for his political future," Caughell said. "It undermines his argument that his way of approaching politics is the future of the Republican party."
This fall's campaigning hasn't gone without scandal. Susanna Gibson, a nurse practitioner running as a Democrat in highly competitive suburban Richmond House District 57, made international news after the Washington Post reported that she and her husband had streamed online sex acts in return for tips from viewers.
"It is very likely that this has affected her ability to bring in donors," Caughell said. "I think scandals like this are more problematic for women candidates compared to male candidates, because there is a sense of 'boys will be boys.'"
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