(CN) — Recent polls suggest a tight primary race between three Ohio candidates will likely come down to the wire on March 19, as the Republican hopefuls seek to oust incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and join J.D. Vance in the U.S. Senate.
Businessman Bernie Moreno, a multimillionaire who has never held political office, amassed his fortune as the owner of several Mercedes-Benz dealerships. He has leaned into the "outsider" moniker throughout his campaign.
Moreno secured endorsements from former President Donald Trump and Vance, which could be crucial to help him secure victory in the primary.
Trump was victorious in Ohio in his first two presidential campaigns and won the state by eight percentage points in 2020.
Frank LaRose, an Army veteran currently serving as Ohio's Secretary of State, was widely considered the frontrunner when he announced his candidacy, but is now neck and neck with Moreno as the primary draws closer.
LaRose's support of the failed attempt to amend the Ohio Constitution in an August 2023 special election did him no favors with Ohio voters, who rejected the measure across the board.
The change would have made it nearly impossible to amend the constitution in the future and was widely viewed as a way for Republicans to prevent the passage of Issue 1, an amendment that enshrined a right to abortion and reproductive decisions in the state's constitution.
LaRose's efforts against Issue 1 were also ineffective, as Ohioans voted to pass the measure in last year's election cycle.
Matt Dolan, a lawyer who serves in the Ohio Senate, sits slightly behind the other two candidates in recent polls and has focused his campaign on his political acumen and experience.
His father, Larry Dolan, is the owner of the Cleveland Guardians Major League Baseball franchise; Matt Dolan worked in the team's front office before his career in politics.
A poll conducted by Emerson College in the last week of January gave Moreno a one point advantage over LaRose, 22% to 21%, with Dolan in third place with 15%.
In the same poll, all of the Republican candidates lagged behind the incumbent in a hypothetical general election vote, receiving 37%.
In proposed matchups against Moreno, LaRose, and Dolan, Brown garnered 39%, 39%, and 38% of the vote, respectively, which renders the race a toss-up regardless of the eventual Republican candidate.
The three Republicans participated in the second of three scheduled debates on Feb. 19 at the University of Findlay, with both LaRose and Dolan attacking Moreno's credibility throughout the evening, first on immigration.
"This is why you can't trust this guy," LaRose said of Moreno. "Three years ago when he wanted to be popular with his fellow corporate elites, he wrote an article saying there should be a path to citizenship [for illegal immigrants]. Now that he wants to convince people he is a conservative, he has changed his tune. Which Bernie are we going to get in Washington?"
The economy also took center stage at the debate, and Moreno emphasized his business credentials to contrast with the spending habits of career politicians like his opponents.
"We need to massively cut government spending," he said. "You know who's not going to cut government spending? Career politicians. That's why we need outsiders and businesspeople."
LaRose pushed back on Moreno's characterization and agreed that the federal government has a "spending problem."
"Cutting taxes and controlling the growth of government is the solution," he said. "If you live off a stock portfolio or a trust fund, maybe the economy is doing well for you. But if you're a normal Ohioan working an hourly job, everything in your life costs more but wages have not gone up."
Abortion is always a hot-button issue during elections, but it has added importance in Ohio after Issue 1.
All three Republican candidates maintain a steadfast anti-abortion stance. Dolan used the debate to tout his record on the issue.
"Since I've been in the Legislature, abortion has gone down 37%," he said. "My budgets created record funding for pregnancy crisis centers throughout the state of Ohio, but let's face it, Sherrod Brown wants abortion to be the issue in 2024."
When the endorsement of Trump was brought up during the debate, LaRose emphasized his support of the former president from the outset of his political career and attacked Moreno's "outsider" rhetoric.
"It's interesting I keep hearing this phrase 'career politician,'" he said. "Bernie keeps mentioning this when he is trying to claim he's an outsider. He is anything but an outsider. He's been involved in politics every bit as long as I have and to call yourself an outsider is completely false."
In response, Moreno called Trump "the greatest president of my lifetime" and made it clear he would support Trump unequivocally if both men are elected to office in November.
"He knows I will have his back, he knows I'm the one that's most aligned on his policies. He looked at all three of us and at the end of the day chose me," Moreno said.
The candidate who wins later this month will face a tough test in November against Brown, despite Ohio's recent trend away from being a true battleground state and toward a more staunchly conservative stronghold.
Brown has a long career in politics, having served as Ohio Secretary of State from 1983-1991 before winning election to the U.S. Congress, where he served from 1991-2007.
He has been a senator since 2007 and is seeking reelection for a fourth term; he was unchallenged in the Democratic primary.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has consistently rated the November general election a toss-up.
According to campaign finance data from the Federal Election Commission released at the end of 2023, LaRose is lagging significantly behind his competitors in funding, having brought in only $1.8 million in receipts, with just over $771,000 in cash on hand.
Dolan and Moreno had raised over $9.1 and $7.2 million, respectively.
Brown, meanwhile, amassed a war chest of over $27 million and reported raising $6.6 million in the final quarter of 2023 alone. He still has more than $14.6 million in cash on hand.
Early in-person voting in the Buckeye State began on Feb. 21 and continues six days a week until March 17.
Courthouse News will have continuing coverage of the primary results on March 19.
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