RALEIGH, N.C. (CN) — North Carolina Republicans are hoping to gain total control of the state government, attempting to hold on to their majority in the Senate and House and pushing to elect a Republican governor to control the trifecta —meanwhile, early polling has tipped toward Democrats for the position.
The incumbent governor in office, Roy Cooper, has served two terms consecutively and has been term limited. Democrats have largely dominated the position over the past 30 years, with 4 out of the 5 most recent governors being Democrats, but state elections poll closely. The GOP have been weighing their majority power against Cooper since they gained a supermajority last year, which has allowed them to override more than a dozen of Cooper’s vetoes during the last legislative session.
North Carolina’s 2024 governor race stands to change the balance of power.
Three candidates are fighting for the Republican nomination in the primary elections: Dale Folwell, Bill Graham and Mark Robinson.
Folwell has been the North Carolina treasurer since 2017 and has served four terms in the House of Representatives, including one term as speaker pro tempore. Folwell touts his political experience and argues that he’s the only Republican that can face up against the leading Democrat candidate, Josh Stein.
Bill Graham, an “unwavering conservative,” is an attorney and former prosecutor. Graham said that he believes in the death penalty for fentanyl dealers and human traffickers, and wants to provide tax relief, establish a statewide crime task force and restrict “partisan and politicized curriculum” in schools. Graham is self-funding much of his campaign and loaned it nearly $2.8 million last year. He has over $161,000 on hand.
Mark Robinson’s priorities are narrowly defined on his campaign website as “education”. The first African American to serve as lieutenant governor in North Carolina, he has been heavily criticized by his Republican competition for avoiding issues he previously loudly discussed, such as abortion. Robinson was catapulted into the public eye in 2018 after an impassioned speech about gun control at a city council meeting spurred his entry into politics.
Robinson recently said that he believes transgender women should be arrested for using the bathroom, and that LGBTQ people are “filth.” In the past he has challenged the validity of the Holocaust, calling it “hogwash” and implied that Jewish people are among the four horsemen of the Biblical apocalypse, statements he has recently walked back.
“Mark Robinson is history's latest example of someone rising to power through hate,” Folwell challenged.
Robinson has also received support from former President Donald Trump, which may help to sway Republican voters. In the second half of 2023, his campaign raised over $3.3 million, and he had nearly $4.3 million on hand for his campaign at the beginning of this year.
Robinson is projected to lead, as 34% of Republican voters documented their intent to vote for him in an early February poll conducted by Meredith College. None of the other Republican candidates polled higher than 9% in their survey of 760 people. 42% of Republican voters said they were still undecided.
An earlier poll of Republican voters conducted by Public Policy Voting in January also had Robinson in the lead, with 55% of Republican voters planning to vote for him, compared to 15% who supported Graham and 7% who supported Folwell. Nearly a quarter of GOP voters hadn’t decided who they would vote for.
Dr. Eric Heberlig, political science professor at UNC Charlotte, said that the disputes between the Republican candidates stem from candidates pushing to differentiate themselves, as they all share similar issue positions. To voters, their political differences “are really a matter of degree.”
“Certainly, Robinson is more consistently extreme on issues than Folwell is,” Heberlig said. “But I think the main differentiation between them for voters is more on style than on policies.”
Attorney General Josh Stein is the favorite for the Democratic nomination, with more than 150 endorsements from North Carolina officials. Stein served four terms as a state senator and is a Harvard graduate. He received an early endorsement from Cooper in August 2023, before candidate filing began.
The only Democrat candidate with extensive political experience, Stein secured funding for addiction recovery services and worked to reduce a backlog of untested rape kits. Stein has also dominated campaign fundraising, raising over $5.7 million during the second half of 2023, with $11.4 million on hand.
Among the Democrats is Marcus Williams, an attorney who formerly served as the assistant public defender for North Carolina. Williams’ priorities are stimulating the economy and preserving the environment. Chrelle Booker, a realtor, is the mayor pro tempore for the tiny North Carolina town of Tryon. Democrat Gary Foxx has a policing background, and wants to reduce class sizes in public schools, protect Medicaid access and promote renewable energy sources.
Michael “Mike” Morgan is a former North Carolina Supreme Court judge who believes in criminal justice reform and protecting democratic principles that he says are challenged by voter suppression. North Carolina has a history of gerrymandering, and multiple racial gerrymandering lawsuits have been filed since the Republican-majority passed new election maps in October without public input. Morgan’s campaign has fundraised over $119,000 and reports having over $32,000 on hand.
Heberlig says that one of the reasons Democrat candidates haven’t been challenging each other is the lack of funding. Stein’s main contender, Morgan, doesn’t have the financing to challenge the amount of fundraising Stein is conducting.
Stein is maintaining a lead for the nomination, with Meredith College reporting that he currently polls 31% to Morgan’s 4%, with 51% of voters remaining undecided.
“It is difficult to see anyone in the field making this a competitive race with Josh Stein. His fundraising lead, name recognition and early endorsement from Governor Roy Cooper likely ensure his victory,” said Dr. David McLennan, the director of the Meredith Poll and a professor of political science at Meredith College.
When voters were asked who they would vote for between Democrat Stein and Republican Robinson, the Meredith poll reported Stein has a narrow lead of 39% to Robinson’s 35%.
Heberlig believes that the gubernatorial race in November will be neck and neck.
“Barring any major events that push things clearly in one direction, I expect it to be very close,” he said. “That's been the tradition of statewide elections in North Carolina over the last 20 years. Governor's races have been consistently very close. Likewise, most of the federal races for president or senate have been pretty close …The safest prediction is that we’d see the same patterns that we've been seeing.”
North Carolina also recognizes the Green Party, which describes itself as an “anti-racist, feminist, pro-worker political party.” They advanced candidate Wayne Turner to the gubernatorial election and will not be holding a primary. Turner, a Raleigh native, is a retired engineer and plant manager who has yet to receive any endorsements.
The Libertarian party has two candidates: entrepreneur Shannon Bray who wants to limit anti-competitive business regulation, and Mike Ross, who supports government transparency and additional police funding.
Primary elections in North Carolina are on March 5. The general election will be held Nov. 5.
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