DETROIT (CN) — Some Michigan voters will get their chance to weigh in on the Donald Trump drama as others look to affirm the choice of President Joe Biden to run for a second term when the state’s primaries are held at the end of the month.
There was no shortage of excitement building to this moment, with the Michigan Supreme Court ruling in late December that former President Trump was eligible to be on the Feb. 27 ballot.
The journey to the Michigan Supreme Court began in September 2023 when a watchdog group filed a legal challenge to Trump’s candidacy — as have others in states like Colorado and Maine.
Free Speech For People alleged that Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection violated Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, therefore making him ineligible for office.
Trump has since vanquished the rest of the GOP’s 2024 hopefuls, except for Nikki Haley, who is determined to press on with her campaign at least through Michigan and Super Tuesday.
John A. Clark, a professor of political science at Western Michigan University, opined during a phone interview that this was not a traditional political season.
“Usually we would expect that, particularly from the our party — which for now is Republicans — that the field would be crowded, and these contests would be really significant,” he said. “I think most folks would be surprised that a state going as early in the process as Michigan might still have relatively nothing to say about the nomination outcome.”
However Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, a professor of political science at Wayne State University, thought the results may still yield some takeaways.
“It's risky to predict general election results from such a small, unrepresentative sample of the electorate. On the other hand, Michigan voters do have an uncommitted option this year for both parties. So the size of that choice in either party's primary might provide some information about general election turnout,” she wrote in an email.
Instead of all 55 Republican delegates awarded via popular vote, candidates this year will have one more hurdle: a state convention scheduled for Saturday, March 2.
The remaining 39 delegates will be awarded according to a vote from convention attendees. They will be selected in each of the state's 13 congressional districts. The nominating convention will consist of 13 separate conventions, one for each congressional district, with the candidates for president and their supporters campaigning before each group votes. Each gets three delegates to award, adding up to 39 in all.
Thanks to the new process, Sarbaugh-Thompson said, "the primary results are likely to send confusing signals this year both to voters and to candidates."
John Mogk, a law professor at Wayne State University, believes it would be best to wait to assess the race.
“Super Tuesday would be the better barometer,” he wrote in an email, when Trump “should win overwhelmingly in Michigan.”
In Nevada, Haley finished behind the ballot option for “none of these candidates,” but quickly dismissed the loss as irrelevant and aimed her focus at South Carolina and Michigan where she remained optimistic about her chances.
Sarbaugh-Thompson left the door open for a rebound but noted the odds would be long for Haley.
“You can never tell what might happen in a primary election. It all depends on who bothers to show up,” she wrote.
“That said, she has an uphill battle. She will need to fight hard… and convince people to show up and vote for her. Additionally, the two-step Republican primary and caucus system makes Michigan challenging for her.”
Clark noted that Haley had trouble corralling other candidates into her circle.
