What to look for in New York congressional primary elections

MANHATTAN (CN) — Early voting for New York’s congressional primary elections begins Saturday. Key district races in and around New York City raise questions about the future of not only the makeup of the House of Representatives, but also the direction of the Democratic Party.

With two New York City representatives retiring after three-decade political careers, a popular and progressive mayor making selective endorsements and a district north of the city that Democrats hope to flip, the race is on in the deep-blue city.

It’s a trend that mirrors Democrats’ challenge nationally.

“You’re seeing kind of a fight for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party throughout a lot of these primary contests around the country,” said Shawn Donahue, clinical assistant professor of political science at the University at Buffalo.

In New York City, one major factor Donahue is watching is Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsements.

“He’s chosen to get involved in some of these races, but he is very explicit in staying out of others,” the political science professor said.

There’s also the question of whom the retiring representatives chose to endorse and how recent redistricting has shaken up decades of voting patterns.

Here’s a closer look at some of the key races in the New York City area. Election Day is June 23. Early voting runs from June 13 to June 21.

Congressional District 7: Brooklyn and Queens

In the 7th District’s Democratic primary, the winner of which is nearly guaranteed victory in the general election in November, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso is facing New York Assemblymember Claire Valdez, New York City Councilmember Julie Won and public defender Vichal Kumar.

Valdez, who is endorsed by Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America, is leading by a small margin, according to recent polls.

Reynoso, meanwhile, is backed by several labor unions and the Working Families Party. He also has the endorsement of U.S. Representative Nydia Velázquez, whose retirement after 33 years in the House opened the seat.

Experts have framed the race as a proxy battle between progressives and the party establishment, taking place in a segment of the so-called “Commie Corridor” where Mamdani performed especially well. The 7th District was one of his strongest areas, where he received more than 67% of the vote.

The top two candidates in the district seem to have distinct bases of support, Donahue said, with Reynoso strongest in Brooklyn and Valdez in Queens. Won, who represents part of Queens, could siphon votes from Valdez. But, Donahue noted, the Mamdani factor could prove decisive.

“If his endorsement is going to have some power, probably it’s going to have to have a lot of power here,” Donahue said.

On the Republican ticket, Melvin Rivera is running unopposed.

Congressional District 10: Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn

This two-way race poses a separate trial of the potency of Mamdani’s endorsement. Incumbent U.S. Representative Dan Goldman, who is endorsed by Governor Kathy Hochul, faces a strong challenge from Brad Lander, the former New York City comptroller and 2025 mayoral candidate who is backed by Mamdani.

Recent polls have shown Lander with a healthy lead over Goldman, an attorney and heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune who self-funded the 2022 campaign that put him in office. He won just under 26% of the vote in a crowded race.

Goldman also did not support Mamdani in the last election, Donahue noted, though the district he represents — a product of recent redistricting — certainly did. Mamdani received 60% of the vote in the race against former Governor Andrew Cuomo.

“I think that’s playing a role, because this is also a new district this decade,” Donahue said. “Is he maybe out of step with how that district has become so much more progressive?”

Congressional District 12: Mid-Manhattan

After more than 30 years in Congress, U.S. Representative Jerrold Nadler is retiring. The field of hopefuls seeking to replace him is crowded — Rolling Stone called it a “clown car” — and lively.

Nadler has endorsed New York Assemblymember Micah Lasher, who is also backed by Hochul. He facing fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores. Also in the race are social media political commentator Jack Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and attorney George Conway, a former Republican and the ex-husband of former senior Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway.

Front-runners Lasher and Bores represent an East Side-West Side contest created by redistricting after the 2020 census, Donahue said, when a special master’s maps created a midtown district in a borough previously split longitudinally.

Schlossberg’s polling numbers have fallen far short of the initial buzz surrounding his entry into the race. Donahue said that may have to do with the makeup of the central Manhattan district.

“This is a very informed, well-educated district. This district probably has the highest New York Times readership in the city,” he said. “You kinda have to wonder, is the celebrity factor going to be that much? Having JFK’s grandson in a different district — would that be more of a boost?

As for the apparent toss-up between Lasher and Bores — a recent Emerson College poll had Lasher at 22% and Bores at 20% — Donahue said Nadler’s endorsement is a strong signal that should not be underestimated. But Bores has broader support from labor unions.

“Having labor in your corner is a pretty important thing, especially in districts in New York City,” Donahue said.

Also running are civil rights attorney Laura Dunn, public health researcher Nina Schwalbe, software engineer Christopher Diep and attorney Patrick Timmins.

Congressional District 13: Manhattan and the Bronx

In perhaps his riskiest endorsement, Mamdani threw his support behind Democratic Socialists of America member Darializa Avila Chevalier, who is challenging U.S. Representative Adriano Espaillat for the seat he has held since 2017.

“This was kind of a surprising one,” Donahue said.

Espaillat, who chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, did not back Mamdani in the mayoral primary but supported him in the general election.

“This is a very important figure in Washington,” Donahue said of Espaillat, and so Mamdani’s endorsement of Chevalier “kind of confounded me a little bit … That was really him sticking his neck out.”

Donahue added: “If Espaillat wins, not a great look — but she does win, I mean that definitely makes him seem like the kingmaker, if you will. Or, I guess, queenmaker.”

Also running in the district are computer programmer Theo Chino-Tavarez and Oscar Romero, chief information officer at the New York City Civic Engagement Commission.

Congressional District 17: Hudson Valley

While the districts above are so heavily Democratic that the party’s nominee should have a smooth path to victory, this is not the case in the 17th District, north of New York City. Democrats are competing for the chance to face incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Mike Lawler in November. The possibility of flipping the seat makes the race a crucial one, party leaders say.

“It really could determine the outcome of who controls the House of Representatives," Putnam County Democratic Committee Chair Jen Colamonico told Spectrum News.

On the Democratic ticket are Air Force veteran John Cappello; former U.S. Army special operations officer Cait Conley; Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson; Tarrytown village trustee Effie Phillips-Staley; and Mike Sacks, a TV reporter and former attorney.

“It’s a good-sized field,” Donahue said, identifying Conley and Davidson as the probable front-runners.

The primary winner will attempt to unseat Lawler, who has held the office since defeating Democratic U.S. Representative Mondaire Jones in 2022.

“Mike Lawler has been able to kind of defy political gravity in this district, but the other thing is, it had a big swing against Democrats in 2024,” Donahue said. “It was a district that Joe Biden won by about 10 points and Kamala Harris just barely won.”

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